This week, the market coal price continued to decline. It is expected to stabilize and stop falling after falling to 470 yuan / ton in the last ten days. Looking back on March, the port coal price dropped by 35 yuan / ton; in April, the demand for coal was low, traders haggled with each other, the phenomenon of low-cost goods rejection was increasing, and the market situation was even worse; in the first and middle of April, the port coal price dropped by as much as 50 yuan / ton. At present, most of the power plants are adopting the strategy of de stocking. The amount of coal consumed by power coal is slightly higher than the amount of transferred coal, which makes the coal storage of key power plants and coastal power plants fall back slightly. It is expected that in the last ten days, the price of coal will fall to 470 yuan / ton; then, supported by the shipping cost of coal enterprises, the decline of coal price will be narrowed. When the price of coal falls to the bottom and is about to stabilize, some users in the coastal areas will have the heart to copy the bottom, the number of coal pulling ships will increase and the market situation will tend to improve.
After a long period of consumption in March and April, coal storage in coastal power plants is gradually approaching or even lower than the same period last year, and the number of days available for coal storage is further reduced. In addition, in May, Daqin line will be subject to centralized maintenance for nearly a month; although the maintenance of Daqin line has little impact on the market, the psychological pressure on users still exists, and the enthusiasm of some small and medium-sized users to purchase and transport coal will be restored. In May and June, with some coastal power plants reducing the purchase of imported coal, the demand turned to the domestic; in addition, the upstream took measures such as setting production by sales, actively controlled the coal production, and the main shipping ports are also actively reducing the inventory, accelerating the coal turnover, and promoting the coal market to gradually improve. In addition, after the signing of the new long-term cooperative contract, the price war between coal enterprises is likely to weaken and the situation of rapid drop of spot goods will soon be over under the condition that the contract has the restriction of compulsory performance rate for the downstream. It is expected that the coal price will remain at a low level for a period of time until the downstream demand shows a restorative growth.
At that time, the enthusiasm of the downstream transportation will be restored, and the number of ships arriving at the northern port to pull coal will increase; when the market demand is slightly higher than the upstream supply, especially when the supply of some high-quality coal in the port is short of demand, the price of coal will rise. If the long-term coal power association can be signed successfully and the bundling sales policy continues, the price war between coal enterprises will be suspended and there will be no more price bargaining between them. In May, after the overhaul of Daqin line, the port transfer in volume was affected; the inventory of downstream power plants and the inventory of shipping ports both decreased; after the overhaul, in June, near summer, some users need small-scale replenishment, and it is expected that the demand for coal will rise significantly compared with March and April. In the second half of the second quarter, with the acceleration of infrastructure investment and the recovery of industrial production, the demand for coal will increase. Combined with the restrictions on imported coal, the pressure of supply exceeding demand is alleviated to a large extent; the coastal coal market is transformed into a balance of supply and demand, and the market coal price stabilizes, or even rebounds slightly.
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