At the end of April, there was a rational return of port coal prices; in the end of the month, the price of power coal in the 5500 cards market of Bohai Rim Port increased by 2 yuan/ton. In May, the market situation will improve, demand will increase, port coal prices will remain inertia, price rationality will return. In early May, the price of power coal in the 5500 cards market around Bohai Port is expected to rise by about 10 yuan per ton. With the rebound of port stocks, the pressure of supply exceeding demand in coal market increases, and coal prices will fall. The reasons for the rise in coal prices in the last week of April are as follows: 1. Affected by safety checks and the issuance of coal management tickets, the upstream coal shipment is affected, and the coal pit price rises rapidly, which promotes the coal trading price in the port market to remain firm. 2. Rational price regression, limited by the transportation cost of traders, coal prices can not fall sharply. In the case of price inversion, the rational rise of port coal prices is also a normal phenomenon. 3. In the final stage of maintenance of Daqin Line, the stocks of Qinhuangdao and Jingtang Ports remained at the median level, and coal prices still had a chance to rise slightly.
The author analyses that in May, the port coal price will continue to rise slightly in the first ten days, and will fall in the middle ten days. The reasons are as follows:
1. Starting from May 1, Daqin Line will resume normal transportation, and daily transportation volume will increase from 1.07 million tons during maintenance period to 1.25-1.3 million tons. Coal trucks entering the port will soon return to normal level; among them, coal trucks entering Qingang will return to the high level of about 7200 vehicles, and stocks in Qingang and Jingtang three ports will soon rise to the high level.
2. In May, after the maintenance, the power plants began to increase power generation load, and the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants would quickly recover to a high level of 650-700,000 tons. But at this time, the upstream supply is also increasing, prompting the Bohai Rim Port to enter the two booming markets of supply and demand. Although it is conducive to port coal transportation, coal throughput remains high; but coal turnover is also accelerating, for coal prices, yes. Adverse factors.
3. In May, some coastal power plants began to replenish their stocks and increase the capacity of ships to transport coal to the ports around the Bohai Sea, mainly in the Changxie Coal Group. A small amount of coal purchased from the port market around the Bohai Sea will not lead to a sharp rise in coal prices.
4. During the festival, the price index ceased to issue, which made the coal trade lose its reference and traders have a strong wait-and-see mentality. In addition, the difficulty of bank transfers reduced the volume of transactions. On May 5, after the recovery of the index, affected by the rise in pithead prices, it is expected that port coal prices will remain inertia, rising a week later; due to the end of stage haulage and other reasons, port coal prices will fall, and coal prices are expected to fall to around May 20, starting to stabilize.
5. Australian coal will enter the domestic market in a large scale. It is understood that in mid-May, a large number of Australian coal entered the domestic market after customs clearance; imported coal is cheap, good quality and competitive in the market, which has increased high-quality resources for domestic users, and the number of domestic coal hauled in coastal areas has been reduced accordingly.
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