According to the Chongqing Development and Reform Commission, the price of electricity and coal market in Chongqing has been running weakly since this year. It is expected that the price of electricity and coal will still be dominated by weak operation in the later period. The comprehensive average price of electricity and coal in the eight major power plants monitored by Chongqing Development and Reform Commission was 600.7 yuan/ton, which was 1.88% and 3.61% lower than that of the previous quarter. Among them, the price in March was 593.35 yuan/ton, which was 5.75% lower than the high price in 2018.
Chongqing Development and Reform Commission said that weak demand was the main reason for the weak price operation. According to the data of the Municipal Bureau of Statistics and the Municipal Economic Information Commission, in the first quarter, the city's social electricity consumption increased by 3.77% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 10.25 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Among them, the electricity consumption of the second industry fell by 1.04% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 11.57 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The amount of coal purchased decreased by about 3 percentage points over the same period of last year. According to the analysis of Chongqing Development and Reform Commission, the change of supply and demand structure is still the main factor affecting the price trend in the later period. On the supply side, the current production of coal mines in the producing areas is good. The data show that as of March 20, 50 coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, involving nearly 300 million tons of production capacity, have a solid foundation for later market supply. On the demand side, the second quarter of the power plant will usher in a centralized maintenance period, and with the end of the heating season in the north, the start-up load of the power plant will be reduced. In the short term, the market demand will be dominated by weak shocks.
In addition, after the adjustment of VAT, the decrease of production and transportation costs will be transmitted to the terminal consumption area, which will inevitably lower the market price of electric coal.
In summary, the price of electricity and coal market in Chongqing in the second quarter will continue to be weak.