In the post-industrial era, the basic variables of industrial economy have undergone qualitative changes: new technologies, new processes, new materials and new concepts, which "cut off" the traditional development path, and the development of chemical industry itself is facing epoch-making adjustment.
1. A hurricane swept through the chemical industry.
Originally, the chemical industry had a difficult time in the past two years, and the explosion of the Xiangshui Chemical Park in Jiangsu Province triggered an "earthquake" in the industry. More than a month after the
incident, Jiangsu Province began to comprehensively rectify its chemical industry. Recently, the General Office of the Jiangsu Provincial Committee officially issued the "Jiangsu Province Chemical Industry Safety and Environmental Protection Improvement Program", putting forward strict measures such as "Promoting the Regulation and Improvement according to the Law", "Reducing the number of chemical production enterprises along the Yangtze River" and "Reducing the number of chemical production enterprises in environmentally sensitive areas".
According to the plan, by 2020, Jiangsu will reduce the current stock of more than 6,000 chemical enterprises to no more than 2,000, and further to 1,000 in 2022; at the same time, the number of chemical parks will be reduced from 50 to 20.
As a major chemical province, Jiangsu Province's total chemical output value accounts for the second largest in the country. With such great efforts, it is a hurricane for the whole chemical industry.
And the nationwide rectification of the chemical industry has already begun long before. The magic of "umbrella" has faded from the tried-and-true strategy of "entering the park". Tianjin banned 116 industrial parks and Guangdong renovated 100 chemical parks in three years.
At present, about 7% of 676 chemical industry parks in China have output value of about 50 billion yuan, and about 60% of them are less than 10 billion yuan. By the end of 2018, 1176 enterprises in need of relocation and renovation were initially identified, of which 479 were relocated from other places, 360 were renovated in situ and 337 were closed down and withdrawn. Among them, there are 1089 small and medium-sized enterprises and large enterprises with major risks.
2. Chemical industry is in deep trouble.
Chemical industry is in such an awkward situation that there are trackers after interception. There are supply-side reforms in and the storm of environmental protection is getting worse and worse. Chemical industry has become the main battlefield.
Since the supply-side reform that started in 2016, the double environmental storm reached its peak in 2017, and in 2018, the supply-side reform deepened and environmental protection normalized. First, the environmental protection supervision killed a rifle, and then more long-term mechanisms were built to work. For example, 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River economic belt, such as Hubei and Jiangsu, have introduced prohibition and restriction measures to break the "chemical siege" and failed to meet the environmental protection requirements. Chemical companies have begun to rectify, and some have even suspended production or even closed down. By this year, a new round of central environmental protection supervision will be launched. Under the "insurmountable bottom line" of environmental protection, chemical enterprises have to face the cruel test of "survival of the fittest". At the same time, there are external trade frictions layer by layer, and the chemical industry has become a serious disaster area.
In the two batches of tariff-imposed goods list implemented at the beginning of Sino-US trade frictions, the US 50 billion dollar list and China's list respectively involve more than 180 and 90 kinds of chemical products, the US 16 billion dollar list contains 2.2 billion US dollars of chemical products, and the Chinese list expands to 108 kinds of chemical products, even taking the natural gas which has not yet come out of the shadow of "gas famine" as the spearhead of the "plan to combat the Trump energy hegemony". 。 In Sino-US trade frictions, styrene polymers, polyisobutylene and other chemicals have been "double killed". Exports are subject to tariffs imposed by the United States, and imports are also subject to tariffs imposed. The Sinopec industry, which mainly deals with processing trade, has not only increased import costs of raw materials, but also narrowed export routes for low-profit commodities, which makes it self-evident that its operation is difficult.
And 1363 chemical and plastic products were included in the US $200 billion tax list. Now the Sino-US trade negotiations are going through twists and turns. If the two countries fail to reach a certain solution, then chemical enterprises may face more trade barriers and tariffs. Overall, supply-side extrusion started in the environmental storm, and the trade cost of superimposition started from external pressure soared. Internal extrusion and external pressure put chemical industry on the top of the bars.
3. The position of chemical industry in traditional industrial economic system is very important.
"Without chemical industry, there will be no industry." With the rise of iron-making and coking industries, synthetic dyes, synthetic perfumes and other products have come out one after another. Rubber tires have also been put into production, which has made the first sound of steam engine.
Up to now, all dimensions of clothing, food, housing and transportation are fundamentally dependent on the raw materials and auxiliary products provided by chemical industry. It is the development of chemical industry that enriches the material life of human society unprecedented. In other words, chemical industry is not only the core of the industrial economy, but also the pillar industry of the national economy. It used to be "the chemical industry wins the world". Which of the old industrial powers, such as the United States, Britain, Germany and France, did not take advantage of the east wind of chemical industry development to vigorously promote the process of industrialization? Because of the importance of chemical industry, China's industrial economic development has also made a bet on chemical industry. Whether it was "giving priority to heavy industry" in the 1950s or "leaping over" blindly regardless of objective conditions, or driven by the real estate investment boom in the early 1990s and the construction of infrastructure in the early 21st century, it has promoted the expansion of heavy chemical industries such as coal and iron and steel, resulting in four-degree industrial growth. Turn to heavy chemical industry as the leading factor, objectively become the engine of industrial economy.
From 2000 to 2016, the global share of China's chemical production capacity increased from less than 9% to more than 36%, corresponding to China.
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