At the beginning of September, environmental protection and safety inspections were frequent in the main coal mines, and the output of the coal mines in the production areas was limited. The overall coal mine start-up rate maintained a medium to low level. On the port side, due to the cancellation of preferential freight policy and the rise of futures by Xi'an Bureau, supplier quotations rose slightly according to the index, and market inquiries also increased slightly. The actual transaction price of individual low-sulfur and high-quality coal is 3-5 yuan/ton higher than the index. With the joint action of good factors such as the proximity to Daqing, the rebound of demand, the upgrade of environmental safety supervision in the upstream and the upcoming maintenance of Daqin Line, TRADERS'tender sentiment has risen and the stable operation of coal prices has been broken.
When coal price is in a burning state, there is a lack of fuse. Once the index rises, it will cause downstream users to purchase actively. When the price of coal falls, no one is in a hurry to buy. Once the price of coal rises, users in the coastal and riverside areas of the South will rush to buy it. Affected by the typhoon in the south, ships pulling coal into port are blocked and take shelter along the line. It is expected that after the typhoon, some small and medium-sized power plants will be rushed to transport coal, coastal coal transport tends to be tense; the port around the Bohai Sea will present the phenomenon of ship-pressing, and coal prices will rise.
1. Negative purchasing in summer. It's a good time to pull coal in autumn
This summer, the power plant maintained rigid haulage and passive purchasing of coal around Bohai Sea port by virtue of high inventory and a certain amount of imported coal, resulting in a sharp decline in coal storage in power plant. In summer, the peak season of coal market is not strong, showing two weak trends of supply and demand, and upstream development. Neither coal nor downstream haulage is active. Coal prices fluctuate in a W-shaped manner and are below the trader's break-even point. Close to the peak of coal storage in Daqing and winter, combined with the impact of the upcoming maintenance of Daqin Line, the enthusiasm of downstream haulage and repair depots has been restored.
2. The price of pithead coal rose, the downstream lifting peak
The upstream safety inspection, the number of stopping coal production increased, and the price of pithead coal rose. On the downstream side, although energy-consuming industries such as cement and steel have not been fully restored to production, rigid demand is still in place; in addition, coal storage in coastal power plants has declined sharply compared with summer, and it is time to replenish inventories. In order to meet 70 years of Daqing, the downstream began to increase the number of coal storage; overlapping the Qin Line into the car shortage, Qin Port Yard is on the low side, and coal prices hang upside down, the enthusiasm of traders is not high, resulting in a shortage of some high-quality coal species, prompting the port coal prices to rise.
3. Winter storage drives the coal market to be better
Coastal power plants have been actively consuming their own coal, and the insufficient purchases have resulted in the reduction of coal storage in their own power plants. As of September 9, the total coal storage in the six major coastal power plants was 16.67 million tons, which is more than 2.2 million tons lower than that in early July, and is close to the same period last year. Towards the peak of coal use in winter, it is impossible for traders and coal-producing enterprises to continue to reduce prices and promote sales; in the case of cost support and increasingly stringent upstream security checks, traders have strong price awareness. Towards the winter storage, downstream electric power and other industries began to replenish their inventories on a large scale to meet the needs of peak winter. Coal prices in the port market are expected to rise to 600 yuan/ton.
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