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    Home > Has the power coal fallen to the bottom in the peak season?

    Has the power coal fallen to the bottom in the peak season?

    Echemi 2019-11-08

    coal-production

    Recently, the power coal market of northern port continued to decline. Under the pressure of high storage in the port, some self owned coal mine shippers took the lead in selling at a reduced price, but the sales situation after the price reduction was general, and the downstream price continued to decline with the decline of market price, resulting in the continuous decline of market price. On October 31, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 562 yuan / ton, 3 yuan / ton lower than that in the previous period, 25 yuan / ton or 4.2% lower than that in the same period last month; the price of cci5000 power coal was 492 yuan / ton, 2 yuan / ton lower than that in the previous period, 26 yuan / ton or 5.0% lower than that in the same period last month. The temperature in North China is getting colder and the heating season is coming this winter. However, in the past when the demand is the most vigorous, the price of domestic power coal is mute. In response, the Securities Times quoted relevant people as saying that since last year, the power plants have been actively replenishing their inventories in the off-season and maintaining a high inventory throughout the year, so there will not be a large demand gap in the peak season.

    At present, the port inventory is very high, and the downstream power plants are basically maintained in a high inventory state throughout the year. There is no purchase demand in the market now. Most of the downstream power plants are mainly long-term cooperative coal procurement, with the assistance of some imported coal, there are few coal procurement plans for the domestic market, so the downward pressure of coal price is relatively large. In terms of the latest market, with the continuous downward exploration of market price, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and the majority of customers wait and see. In the early days of November, the customers who inquired about the pallet delayed the shipment, postponed the pallet procurement, and the market transaction was cold. On October 31, the mainstream price of cv5500 power end coal was 560-565 yuan, the mainstream price of cv5000 power end coal was 495 yuan, and the downstream counteroffer was under 490 yuan. A trader in Hebei said that it was still hard for the port to deliver goods. Now there is a quotation of 494 yuan for moving coal (cv5000, s0.6), waiting for the downstream to receive goods and make a counter-offer. The market is still not optimistic. For the time being, there is the possibility of further decline.

    In addition, according to a trader in Zhejiang, there is still no hope of a better market. Some low-priced sales lists in the market on the 31st have a great impact on market sentiment. In terms of imported coal, the price slightly moved down, but it was still firm. Now, the price of cv5500 is about US $fob52.5, while that of cv3800 is about US $fob35-36. As for the downstream, as of October 22, the inventory of national key power plants reached 91.78 million tons, a new high since December 2018. And the six major coastal power inventories also maintained at the level of more than 16 million tons. Under the background of high inventory, the purchasing enthusiasm of the power plant is poor, and it is mainly composed of Changxie coal. As of November 1, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.693 million tons, with the weekly to environmental ratio increasing by 430000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 211000 tons; the daily coal consumption was 566000 tons, with the weekly to environmental ratio decreasing by 59000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.5 tons; the available days were 29.5 days, with the weekly to environmental ratio increasing by 3.5 days, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8 days. From the perspective of producing area, coal price in Yulin and Yuyang area of Shaanxi Province has been stable and slightly decreased; coal price in Ordos area has continued to fall, the mine side said that the civil demand is general, and the demand for ports and power plants is poor, the surrounding coal yards are pessimistic and bearish to the future market, the raw coal purchase volume has decreased, the foam coal is unsalable and the price has continued to fall; the price in Shanxi area is temporarily stable, and the port coal price continues to decline, and the downstream traders Most of them have no intention to purchase, and the overall delivery rate is slightly lower than that of last week. Based on the continuous increase of inventory, coal price will be lowered strongly.

    For the trend of coal price in the later period, Huajin Securities believes that there is little room for power coal to go down in the short term. Power coal production and transportation return to normal, demand shows off-season characteristics, inventory is on the high side, and prices are suppressed. At present, port spot prices are close to long-term cooperative prices. In the later stage, with the general cooling of the country, the goal of dual control in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas was completed, hydropower gradually entered the low water period, and the start-up of winter storage inventory of power plants is expected to support the short-term price, and the coastal coal freight as a leading indicator has been started.

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