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    Home > Analysis and Prospect of coal economic operation in the first three quarters

    Analysis and Prospect of coal economic operation in the first three quarters

    Echemi 2019-11-08

    Factory-Large

    In the first three quarters of this year, China's GDP stood at 69779.8 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year at comparable prices. Industrial production picked up significantly in September, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in value-added, 1.4 percentage points higher than last month. In the first three quarters, China's industrial production grew steadily, structural adjustment continued to advance, new momentum continued to grow, corporate efficiency improved, and the benefits of policies for small and micro enterprises continued to expand. In September, the production of industrial raw coal above Designated Size slowed down, and the production of crude oil, natural gas and electric power accelerated. In the first three quarters, the development of energy has five characteristics: first, the sustainable improvement of energy supply and security capacity; second, the in-depth promotion of green and low-carbon transformation; third, the continuous increase of energy shortage board; fourth, the continuous improvement of energy and people's livelihood security; fifth, the reform and innovation to promote the development of new industries. First, the growth rate of raw coal production slowed down.

    In September, the output of raw coal was 320 million tons, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than that of last month. The average daily output was 10.8 million tons, an increase of 610000 tons month on month. In the first three quarters, the output of raw coal was 2.74 billion tons, up 4.5% year on year, 1.9 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. In terms of provinces and regions, Inner Mongolia has the largest coal output, with 83.808 million tons of coal produced in September, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; Shanxi Province has 81.82 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%; Shaanxi Province has 65.472 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The total coal output of the above three provinces and regions has exceeded 230 million tons, more than 70% of the total coal output of the country, marking the steady increase of coal production concentration in China. In September, 30.29 million tons of imported coal increased by 20.5% year-on-year, and 2.66 million tons decreased month on month. In the first three quarters, 250.57 million tons of coal were imported, up 9.5% year-on-year, 3.7 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. In terms of coal types, the imported power coal (including bituminous coal and sub bituminous coal, but excluding lignite, the same below) in September was 13.55 million tons, an increase of 4.46 million tons on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 49.06%, and a decrease of 730000 tons on a month on month basis, a decrease of 5.11%.

    In September, the import volume reached US $89.185 million, so it can be seen that the unit price of import was US $65.82/ton, up 0.04/ton month on month, down 10.42/ton year on year. From January to September, the total import of power coal was 95.48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.22 million tons, an increase of 2.38%; the total amount was 660.3018 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 13.52%. In September, 8.37 million tons of lignite were imported, down 1.6% year on year, 880000 tons on month, down 9.51%. The import value was US $36.1625 million, down 16.3% year on year. From January to September, the total import of lignite was 87.83 million tons, up 12.4% year on year; the total amount was 3417.35 million US dollars, down 8.6% year on year. On September 27, the comprehensive transaction prices of 5500 kcal and 5000 kcal coal in Qinhuangdao were 570 yuan and 509 yuan per ton respectively, 4 yuan and 1 yuan lower than the end of August, and 456 yuan per ton for 4500 kcal, 1 yuan higher than the end of August. In addition, from the perspective of electric coal, in September, the price index of electric coal in China was 489.88 yuan / ton, down 6.18% year on year. In the first three quarters of 2014, the profit of coal mining and washing industry decreased. From January to September, the operating revenue of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size reached 77.67 trillion yuan, up 4.5% year on year.

    The business income of mining owners was 3390.29 billion yuan, up 4.8% year on year. Among them, the main business income of coal mining and washing industry was 1830.56 billion yuan, up 3.9% year on year. From January to September, China's Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size realized a total profit of 4593.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over January to August. The total operating profit of mining owners was 427.94 billion yuan, up 3.1% year on year. Among them, the total profit of coal mining and washing industry reached 216.5 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points lower than that from January to August. From January to September, the operating cost of coal mining and washing industry was 1318.18 billion yuan, up 6.3% year on year. The operating cost of the mining industry was 245.5 billion yuan, up 6.3% year on year. In September 2019, the company's core operating asset, Daqin line, completed cargo transportation of 33.83 million tons, a 10.69% year-on-year decrease, an increase of 1.86 percentage points over August. 340000 tons less than last month, down 1.00%. The average daily traffic volume in September was 1.1277 million tons, an increase of 25400 tons compared with 1.1023 million tons in July. In September, the daily average number of Heavy Trains on Datong Qinhuangdao railway was 75.4, including 55.3 trains of 20000 tons per day. From January to September, the total volume of cargo transportation completed on the Datong Qinhuangdao railway was 323.48 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.73%, 0.75 percentage point higher than that from January to August.

    The analysis shows that with the opening of Haoji railway in the future, it will have a great negative impact on the operation of Daqin Railway. Because, after Qinhuangdao port and Tangshan port are launched, a considerable part of the coal transported by the Datong Qinhuangdao railway will be transported by sea to river, covering the consumption areas of Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi. With the opening of the Haoji railway, the coal consumption in Central China can be met either by the original "sea into the river" way or by the Haoji railway directly from the coal source to the consumption place. The cost will determine the transportation volume of the two lines. For the coal consumption in Central China, compared with the way of "sea into river" in the past, the direct transportation through Haoji railway can save about 50 yuan per ton, which is quite considerable as a whole. Therefore, with the traffic volume of Haoji railway, the traffic volume of Daqin Railway is likely to bear some diversion pressure in the medium and long term. 6. In 2018, the proven reserves of coal resources in China increased by 2.5%. Recently, China's mineral resources report 2019 prepared and issued by the Ministry of natural resources showed that in 2018, 37 kinds of proven reserves of major minerals in China increased and 11 kinds decreased.

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