Although the quota control of imported coal is tightened, the quantity of imported coal arriving is reduced, and the domestic coal market is showing signs of improvement; however, as the favorable policy has just been implemented, there are not many coal ships arriving at the port, and after the coal price bottoms and stabilizes, there is still a weak trend of supply and demand. The author analyzes that in the second half of November, it is still in the stage of active consumption and inventory, and the coal price is still weak to rise; in December, it is in the cold winter, and it is expected that the market will rebound in late December, and the port coal price is expected to rise about 5-10 yuan / ton. The specific analysis is as follows:
1. The power plant inventory is high, in the consumption of inventory stage, the desire to pull coal is not strong. Up to now, the inventory of national key power plants has remained at about 98 million tons, while the coal storage of six coastal power plants has once again exceeded 17 million tons, rising to 17.03 million tons, with 28 days of coal storage available. Most of the power plants are actively consuming their own inventory, and the enthusiasm to transport and replenish the storage is not high; at present, except for the increase of anchor ships in Qinhuangdao port, other ports around the Bohai Sea continue to maintain low anchor ships.
2. The climate in the south is suitable, and the daily consumption of the power plant has not increased significantly. At present, half of November has passed, North China, Inner Mongolia, northeast and other places have entered the heating season, and the daily consumption of power plants has increased; however, the temperature in South China is relatively high, while the temperature in East China is suitable, and the civil power load is relatively low. In spite of the decrease of rainwater and the decrease of hydropower output, the coal input of power plants along the south coast and along the river is generally higher than the consumption, resulting in the high inventory.
3. The port inventory is high, which is difficult to support the coal price. At the end of the year, the transportation task has entered the sprint stage. The main coal transportation railways, such as the Daqin line and the Mengji line, have made full use of their power to speed up the shipment and increase the number of coal shipments to the ports around the Bohai Sea. In addition, several closures caused by severe weather, such as strong winds, have prompted the ports around the Bohai Sea to keep high inventory and loose transportation. Up to now, there are 26.88 million tons of coal in the 10 coal ports around the Bohai Sea, only 500000 tons less than at the beginning of the month.
4. The price of pithead coal did not rise significantly. Although the main producing area of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia pithead market tends to be stable as a whole, it is still under pressure. Recently, affected by the exploration of port coal price, the shipment of a few mines in Inner Mongolia has slightly improved, and the number of coal trucks has increased. Affected by the lack of demand, the coal price in Yulin, Shaanxi Province declined in a weak way. Some coal mines set production by sales, with a small inventory and an increased willingness to support prices. The coal price in northern Shanxi Province was generally stable, with coal prices rising and falling, and coal sales were normal.
At present, the coal mine delivery situation is general, the market demand is flat, the mine mouth coal price has not officially entered the rising market. In December, with the advent of a new wave of cold air, the weather in East China and central China will cool down, the civil power load will increase, the coal consumption of power plants will increase substantially, driving the coal market to get better; with the decline of power plant inventory and the recovery of purchasing enthusiasm, the rise of coal price will be supported.
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