The Electric Reliability Council of Texas Thursday forecast a 9.5% year-over-year increase in peakload demand over the upcoming fall season, but expected to have "sufficient" systemwide installed generating capacity.
Forecast peak demand was 54,437 MW for fall 2016, an increase of 9.5% from the fall 2015 estimate of 49,709 MW, ERCOT said in its final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the fall (October-November).
Actual monthly peakload in October 2015 was 59,187 MW and 44,945 MW in November 2015.
Average temperatures in Dallas Fort Worth area averaged 71.2 degrees in October 2015, 3.7 degrees above normal, according to National Weather Service data. Cooling degree days totaled 207, 61 above the norm.The fall 2016 peak forecast is based on normal weather conditions for 2002-2014 from mid-October through mid-November. The fall 2015 forecast was based on the 2002-2013 period.
On the supply side, total resources rose 6.4% year over year to 82,216 MW from 77,289 MW.
Reserve capacity, which is calculated by subtracting peak demand from total resources, was 27,779 MW in fall 2016, a comparatively small increase of 0.7% from the reserve capacity of 27,580 MW in the fall of 2015.
Since the release of the preliminary fall SARA in May 2016, four gas-fired combustion turbine units (623 MW fall season capacity rating) and three wind projects (703 MW nameplate, 273 MW fall capacity contribution) have moved from planned to operational status, according the final SARA report.
In addition, a mothballed 83-MW, gas-fired resource became operational in July. Capacity excluded from the final fall SARA report includes a planned gas combustion turbine project that has been delayed beyond October 1, 2016, the report said.