Market Analysis - Monthly Report - November, 2020 - Biotin

1. Review of the biotin market in November

Affected by the new crown epidemic abroad, the domestic biotin export market continued to be weak, coupled with the start of full-line domestic factories, resulting in oversupply. Therefore, domestic biotin prices continued to fall in November. As can be seen from the figure below, the unit price of domestic feed grade biotin in November dropped from 8.1 USD/KG at the beginning of the month to about 7.1 USD/KG at the end of the month, a drop of 14%.

The ex-factory price of pure biotin dropped from 480USD/KG at the beginning of November to about 310USD/KG at the end of the month, a drop of 42%. (Different factories have different quotations according to the order quantity. The above prices are for reference only.)

2. Current market conditions

Due to Christmas and China’s traditional New Year’s Day and Spring Festival holidays, in mid-to-late November, domestic and foreign annual orders and large orders increased, some factories were exhausted, and the delivery period began to grow. It is reported that as of the end of November and early December, Shengda Biotin's biotin delivery date has been scheduled to February 2021, and the biotin delivery date of new factories such as Tianxin Pharmaceutical will probably be scheduled to the end of December.

3. ECHEMI forecast

As can be seen from the figure below, the current domestic feed-grade biotin price of around 7.1USD/KG has fallen to a low in 2020, and at the same time, the price is close to the historical low in the past 10 years.

At the same time, due to the fact that domestic factories currently have no obvious willingness to raise prices, and the situation is still continuing to start biotin in the later period, the possibility of breaking the historical low is not ruled out. However, supported by the cost side, the decline of biotin in the later period may be affected to a certain extent. Restrictions, the decline is small, and some industry personnel predict that the price of pure biotin may be as low as 250USD/KG.