Demand worries reignited, ethylene glycol led the decline in polyester chains

Recently, the decline of polyester chain varieties has intensified. On the 10th, PTA and staple fiber have a limit of decline. Yesterday, the decline of ethylene glycol was the highest, maintaining a decline of more than 3% within the day. The PTA and staple fiber tails turned red.

The macro liquidity premium has shrunk recently, U.S. Treasury yields have risen, oil prices have weakened, and the domestic stock market has plummeted, and the overall commodity atmosphere has received an impact. In this context, varieties with excessively high previous gains are facing callback pressure. For the downstream demand of polyester varieties, neither the terminal nor the recent polyester production and sales performance can provide sufficient support, so it is called the reason for short selling. With the opening of the polyester plants that were overhauled in the early stage, the polyester load has increased rapidly, which has now risen to about 93%. The start of the texturized weaving has basically returned to the level before the Spring Festival, the stock of grey fabrics continues to decline, and the rising demand for polyester also supports the price of raw materials. However, with the continuous increase in the price of polyester products, the resistance of terminal weaving has gradually appeared, and the enthusiasm of terminal replenishment has declined, and polyester production and sales have remained sluggish for many days. On the terminal side, due to the large increase in upstream raw materials and high valuations, while the increase in terminal grey fabrics is small, the profit of grey fabrics has been compressed, and the previous rise is entirely driven by macroeconomics and expectations. The terminal orders are actually a short window period and cannot be verified. True or false, the current order is still less than the time point for heavy volume, so it is difficult to give substantial support.

As far as EG itself is concerned, the previous spot transaction price can already cover the cost of all process equipment. Coupled with the poor demand for EO in winter, some companies switched to EG. Overall, the domestic ethylene glycol operating load has increased to around 68%. Recently, with the restart of Xinhang Energy and Tongliao Jinmei, the overall domestic supply pressure has been eased. It is mainly due to the recent news that Zhejiang Petrochemical will drive ahead of schedule. There are rumors that MEG will be released this month, but it is not so exaggerated after verification, but the market still fell sharply, mainly because market expectations have changed after being affected. However, in the future, the two larger new ethylene glycol plants in the market are expected to be put into operation from April to May.

The PTA logic focuses on cost changes, and oil prices directly guide the trend of raw material PX. As of March 10, the PX processing fee has fallen to $230/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee has fallen below 300 CNY/ton. Zheshang Futures analyst Zhu Lihang said that the profits of PTA's various production links are now compressed at a low level, making PTA and crude oil highly correlated, and it is most affected by oil price fluctuations. Once the oil price pulls back, PTA will bear the brunt of the decline. . In addition, the current PTA processing fee is at a relatively low level. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are more overhauls in many PTA manufacturers in March.