August 24 news
[Key Insight] In the short term, ethanol prices are at the lower end of their cyclical range. The mean-reversion indicator suggests a volatile pattern characterized by a deep correction (leaning bearish in nature). While local Chinese market prices are declining and import volumes have surged significantly, the downward downside is limited by strong bottom support. It’s crucial to monitor the transmission of international price trends and any changes in rigid downstream demand procurement.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-23) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-22) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | -5.33 | -2.88 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -5.89 | -5.78 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | -21.62 | -23.73 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
Currently, the market is experiencing a volatile deep correction (bearish in nature, characterized by a pullback). This is because the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have narrowed further compared to yesterday (with a negative direction of change), while the 20-day moving average has shown some recovery compared to yesterday (with a positive direction of change). The directions of change among these three moving averages are not entirely consistent, which aligns with the bearish, volatile logic typical of a deep correction.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
Volatility (bearish bias): The directions of change in the three moving averages are not entirely consistent (the 5-day and 10-day moving averages continue to narrow, while the 20-day moving average shows signs of recovery). This does not meet the criteria for a clear trend, hence we judge the market as volatile. In addition, ethanol prices have fallen in localized markets such as Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces in China, as well as in Guanxian’s Xinrui Group. As a result, the import volume of unmodified ethanol in July increased significantly by 29,735.36% month-on-month. In the short term, the market exhibits deep correction characteristics with a bearish bias, reflecting volatile conditions.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day cycle price is in the 1st tier (low position), with limited room for decline;
The 3-month cycle is in Tier 1 (low level);
The 1-year cycle is in the second tier (medium to low level);
Overall prices are in a low range within the cycle, with limited room for decline. However, there is short-term pressure for a correction due to localized price reductions and increased imports in China. If international price transmission or downstream demand picks up, prices could receive support.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Industrial Chain Upstream and Downstream Products
Upstream Commodities: Methyl acetate, cassava, methyl acetate, molasses, wheat, corn, ethylene
Downstream Products: Methyl ethyl carbonate, composite carbon sources, ethyl formate, ethyl methacrylate, isophorone, diethylene glycol ethyl ether, hydroxylamine sulfate, ethylene glycol ethyl ether acetate, diethyl oxalate, monoethanolamine, diethyl malonate, triethylamine, ethyl acrylate, ethyl acetate, ethylamine, diethyl ether, ethanol-gasoline, liquor, acetaldehyde
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
