The current phthalic anhydride price is in the high range of a 1-year cycle. The average difference indicator shows a strong consolidation with a bullish signal. In the short term, prices will maintain a high-level fluctuation pattern. The upward momentum is somewhat restrained due to the limited high-level space. At the same time, the tight supply and limited sales from some manufacturers provide support for the prices. It is necessary to continuously monitor the operation of facilities and inventory changes.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (August 24) | Yesterday's Value (August 23) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 6.67 | 23.33 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 53.33 | 50 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 63.33 | 53.33 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current deviation change direction combination is (－, ＋, ＋), which belongs to a strong consolidation (biased towards bullish) signal.
III. Trend Direction Conclusions
The price trend is oscillating. Reason: The 5-day average difference has decreased compared to yesterday, while the 10-day and 20-day average differences continue to rise. The directions of the three average differences are not entirely consistent, which fits the criteria for an oscillating market. At the same time, the fundamental situation of tight supply and limited sales by some manufacturers supports the prices, presenting a strong consolidation with a bias towards an oscillating pattern.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Phthalic anhydride is in the 5th tier (high position) of its 1-year price cycle in China, with limited room for further increases, and subsequent price hikes will face pressure.
V. Chart Display
VI. Supplement to Fundamental Dynamics
Recent manufacturer quotations and facility conditions: On August 21, the phthalic anhydride unit of Tongling Chemical Industry Group in China resumed operations, with the quotation increased by 100 CNY/ton to 9,200 CNY/ton, and supplies were tight with limited sales; on the same day, the phthalic anhydride quotation of Shijiazhuang Bailong Chemical in China was also raised to 9,200 CNY/ton, with limited inventory mainly for internal use; on August 20, the facility utilization rate of Changzhou Xinyang's phthalic anhydride in China was around 50%, with low inventory, and the quotation was 9,350 CNY/ton with limited orders accepted; Zhenjiang Liancheng Chemical in China increased its quotation by 100 CNY/ton to 9,300 CNY/ton on August 19, and the quotation remained stable on August 20.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
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