[Key Insight] In the short term, MTBE is in a deep correction phase characterized by volatile and bearish trends. The mean difference indicator shows that the 5-day and 10-day mean differences have narrowed, signaling increasing downward pressure at higher price levels. Although some local enterprises have raised their quoted prices, overall upward momentum remains insufficient.
1. Mean Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-24) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-23) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 23.00 | 40.00 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 144.00 | 155.00 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 66.50 | 33.00 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
Deep correction (biased towards bearish, corrective in nature)
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
Volatility (slightly bearish): The reason is that the directions of change in the three moving averages are not entirely consistent with the previous day. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages narrowed compared to yesterday (negative direction of change), while the 20-day moving average widened compared to yesterday (positive direction of change), which aligns with the characteristics of a deep correction rebounding pattern. Combined with industry data, although MTBE producers in Shandong, China, have raised their quoted prices, prices remain at high levels. Meanwhile, the overseas market shows diverging price fluctuations: the average export price in July fell by 10.37% month-on-month. In the short term, prices face downward pressure. At the same time, export volume increased by 41.30% year-on-year, while import volume remains low. This supply-demand dynamic provides some support for prices, resulting in an overall volatile yet corrective trend.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
MTBE 60-day and 3-month cycle prices are at a high level, with limited room for further increases;
Prices over a one-year cycle are at a medium-to-high level, leaving room for a short-term pullback.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Upstream and Downstream Products
Upstream commodity: Methanol
Downstream Products: Gasoline blending agent, methyl acrolein, polymer-grade isobutene, methacrylic acid, isobutene
7. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
(Source: )
