[Key Insights] Currently, ethanol is experiencing a short-term, volatile downward correction with a bearish bias. The July import volume saw a significant month-on-month increase, while spot prices in major producing regions such as Northeast China declined, contributing to the weak short-term trend. However, prices remain at low levels over both the 60-day and 3-month periods, limiting further downside potential. In the coming period, attention should be paid to the progress of plant maintenance, the arrival status of imported supplies, and the pace of rigid demand procurement by downstream users.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Type | Value on 2026.08.25 | Value on 2026.08.24 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -5.11 | -3.56 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -6.77 | -5.77 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -19.62 | -20.34 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
The current mean difference change combination is (-, -, +), which constitutes a deep pullback signal (bearish, with a corrective nature).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current short-term trend for ethanol prices is volatile and bearish. Reasons: The changes in the three averages from the previous day are not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, indicating a volatile range. Additionally, in July, China's import volume of unmodified ethanol increased nearly 297 times month-over-month, and the spot prices in the main production areas in Northeast China have recently decreased by 50-100 CNY/ton. This has led to an increase in short-term supply pressure, resulting in a bearish trend.
4. Position and Spatial Reference
Over a 60-day and 3-month period, prices are in the first tier (low range), with limited room for further decline.
The 1-year cycle price is in the 2nd tier (lower-middle), with strong medium- and long-term price support in China.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
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