August 27 news
[Key Insight] In the short term, MTBE is likely to experience a volatile and deep correction (leaning bearish). Previously, supported by China’s gasoline blending demand and significantly higher year-on-year export growth, prices had risen continuously to highs seen over the 60-day and 3-month periods. Currently, MTBE prices on Asian overseas markets have fallen for two consecutive days, putting downward pressure on prices in the short term. However, MTBE exports in July surged by 41.3% year-on-year, while imports remained at just 200 tons, indicating tight domestic supply that continues to provide strong support for prices from the downside. For now, there’s no clear trend-driven momentum for either upward or downward price movements. Going forward, it will be crucial to monitor the release of demand during China’s peak gasoline consumption season as well as changes in overseas market prices.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Mean Deviation Indicator | Today’s Value (2026.08.26) | Yesterday’s Value (2026.08.25) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| D5 (5-day Mean Deviation) | 148.40 | 153.20 | - |
| D10 (10-day Mean Deviation) | 118.00 | 135.20 | - |
| D20 (20-day Mean Deviation) | 147.30 | 105.80 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
Volatility (deep pullback, bearish, pullback nature)
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term price trend is oscillating.
Reason: The three moving averages—D5, D10, and D20—show inconsistent directions of change compared to the previous day, meeting the criteria for identifying market oscillations. Moreover, their combined signs are (-,-,+), which indicates a bearish signal suggesting a deep correction. Currently, after several consecutive days of rising MTBE prices in China, coupled with weakening prices on Asian external markets, there is short-term demand for a pullback. However, robust growth in exports continues to support domestic supply, leaving no immediate momentum for a sustained downward trend. Overall, the market is expected to exhibit an oscillating, corrective pattern.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
MTBE 60-day cycle price is at a high level, 3-month cycle price is at a high level, and 1-year cycle price is at a moderately high level. The overall upward potential is limited, but if the peak season for downstream gasoline blending demand arrives after a short-term correction, the price will still have support.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
