September 2nd news
[Key Insight] Currently, MTBE is in a volatile trading pattern characterized by a weak rebound (leaning bearish). Although short-term spot quotes have risen due to higher overseas prices and tight supply, medium-term average price differentials are weakening. Coupled with high prices across multiple timeframes, the room for further upward movement is limited, making a volatile downward trend more likely.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value as of Sep 1, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of Aug 31, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 46.8 | -40 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 45.4 | 64.2 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 209.2 | 212 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current three delta change direction combinations are (+, -, -), which is a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
Three, Conclusions on Trend Directions
The short-term trend for MTBE is volatile and bearish. The reasoning behind this assessment is that the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages showed inconsistent directions of change compared to the previous day, meeting the criteria for a volatile market pattern under the moving average difference method. The corresponding trading signal is a weak rebound (bearish). Although short-term prices have experienced occasional surges, these increases lack sustainability, and the likelihood of downward pressure in the near term is relatively high.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
MTBE 60-day and 3-month cycle prices are both in the 5th tier (high, corresponding to the top 20% price range within the cycle), while the 1-year cycle price is in the 4th tier (upper-middle, corresponding to the 60%-80% price range within the cycle). The short-term upside is limited, and the risk of a pressured decline is high.
Five, Trend Chart Display
VI. Fundamental Reference
Chinese Spot Support: On September 1, MTBE producers in Shandong region collectively raised their quotes by 50-150 CNY/ton, with mainstream quotations at 7,300-7,350 CNY/ton. The tight supply supported the firmness of spot prices.
External Market Support: On August 31, Asian and U.S. MTBE spot prices rose by $23.14/ton and $9.49/ton, respectively, pushing up import costs and providing short-term support for Chinese prices.
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
