September 7 news
According to monitoring data: At the beginning of September, the adipic acid market in China showed a recovery, mainly characterized by fluctuating increases. On August 1, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8,575 CNY per ton, and on September 7, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8,900 CNY per ton, an increase of 3.79%.
Main Factors Affecting the Rise and Fall of Adipic Acid Prices in This Stage in China
Supply Side: The overall operating rate of China's adipic acid industry is 78-82%, with facilities running smoothly. Starting from September 8, Hualu Hengsheng will undergo plant maintenance for about 20 days. The maintenance of gasification and related plants will indirectly affect the production of adipic acid, but it is not a major overhaul specifically for adipic acid, so the reduction in output will be limited.
International: Ascend's adipic acid in the United States is under force majeure and is expected to gradually recover by mid-September, leading to a short-term tightness in the external market; however, China's exports are suppressed by anti-dumping measures from the EU, resulting in a significant decline in exports to Europe. The main export destinations are Turkey, India, and Southeast Asia, with the overall export volume notably lower compared to last year.
Inventory: Factory inventory is moderate, social inventory is low, and there is no significant inventory accumulation.
Demand Side: PA66: Automotive and engineering plastics—production starts to rebound moderately, yet orders remain subdued. Downstream buyers tend to procure materials only as needed, showing limited willingness to chase price increases. Polyurethane (PU slurry and shoe sole raw materials): Although there’s an expectation of a traditional “Golden September,” large-scale inventory buildup has yet to begin. Demand remains driven by immediate needs, with buyers reluctant to accept higher raw material prices. PBAT biodegradable plastics: Demand is stable, with no unexpected surge in volume. In summary: While there’s anticipation of a peak season, the reality is a moderate recovery rather than an explosive surge in demand—a key constraint on this round of market dynamics.
Cost Side: Raw materials—pure benzene and cyclohexanone—are fluctuating, providing some cost support; the price spread between benzene and acid has narrowed, leading to improved profitability for producing enterprises.
According to the analysis by SpotCom, the price trend chart of adipic acid shows that the key indicators are as follows: in mid-August, the 10-day moving average crossed below the 20-day moving average once, and at the end of August, it crossed above once. The adipic acid market in August was mainly characterized by volatile increases. At the beginning of September, the spread of adipic acid prices widened positively, accelerating the upward trend, and the spot market for adipic acid saw a strong increase. Supporting indicators: the price of adipic acid is at a high level, with room for a decline.
In summary, the forecast for supply and demand suggests that supply pressure has eased, and demand is moderate, leading to a clear weakening trend for adipic acid in late September. From a technical perspective, it is evident that there is insufficient momentum for an increase in adipic acid prices in late September. Therefore, the overall trend for adipic acid in late September will be mainly characterized by fluctuating increases, with expected prices ranging between 8,900 CNY/ton and 9,200 CNY/ton.
