Shipping and security data released on October 7 and 8 show that security risks around the Strait of Hormuz have risen sharply, with at least 12 attacks, attempted attacks or harassment incidents involving oil tankers, LNG or LPG vessels recorded between September 28 and October 5. The total was the highest for any single week since the current conflict began. At the same time, only seven commodity vessels crossed the strait on October 6, the lowest daily level since July 23.
The 12 incidents do not mean that 12 vessels were directly struck. The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center counted confirmed attacks, attempted attacks, drone overflights and threatening or aggressive communications within the total. The International Maritime Organization had independently corroborated nine of the incidents at the time of reporting, reflecting its slower verification process.
Traffic data also show a significant decline in physical flows. Only seven commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on October 6, before the number recovered slightly to 10 the following day. That remained well below the more than 20 daily crossings seen earlier in the previous week. Crude oil flows through the strait fell by around 27% to 10.1 million barrels per day, equivalent to roughly 74% of pre-war levels.
Much of the decline was linked to fewer ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. At the same time, exporters have increasingly relied on alternative routes. Crude exports through the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea have risen to around 6.7 million barrels per day, more than double pre-war levels, helping keep overall Middle East crude exports close to their pre-conflict scale.
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled an average of around 125 large commercial vessels per day and served as one of the world's most important energy-shipping corridors. Crude oil, LNG and other bulk energy cargoes remain heavily exposed to changes in security conditions and vessel availability in the area.
On October 7, an Iranian official also said routes that Tehran considers “illegal” in the strait would soon be blocked. The remarks referred to routes near the Omani side of the waterway and added another layer of uncertainty to commercial shipping conditions.
As of October 8, commercial traffic through Hormuz had not stopped completely, but vessel movements remained well below recent norms while Middle East exporters continued to rely heavily on Red Sea, Gulf of Oman and STS alternatives.
