October 9th report:
On October 8, the spot price in China increased by 300-400 CNY/ton compared to the previous day. Using the average difference method, it is estimated that the current market is in a strong rebound and bullish phase within a fluctuation range, and the price is at a near one-year high. The subsequent upward space is relatively limited.
I. Calculation of Key Market Indicators (The most recent data available as of October 8, 2026; real-time data is recommended)
1. Table of Average Deviation Changes
| Difference Type | Calculated Value on 2026-10-08 | Calculated Value on 2026-10-07 | Direction of Change Compared to Previous Day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 246.66 | 0.00 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | 98.34 | 97.50 | + |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | 272.91 | 275.83 | - |
2. Signal status determination
The current average difference change combination is (+,+,−), which belongs to a strong rebound (biased towards bullish, rebound nature) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price trend is judged to be fluctuating. Reason: The change in direction of the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences from the previous day is not completely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, and it falls within the range of a strong rebound in a fluctuating interval.
4. Location and Spatial Reference
The current price of natural rubber is in the 5th tier (high range) for the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods, indicating limited upside potential.
5. Price trend chart over the past 1 year in China
II. Fundamental Analysis Reference
Spot market: On October 8, 2026, the natural rubber market in the Qingdao region of China saw a significant increase. The main contract of Shanghai rubber futures surged to over 20,000 CNY/ton, and spot merchants raised their offers by 300-400 CNY/ton: 2024 Yunnan Treasure/Guangken/Haibao mainstream prices were 19,300-19,500 CNY/ton; 2025 Yunnan Treasure/Guangken/Haibao mainstream prices were 19,400-19,700 CNY/ton; Vietnam 3L mainstream prices were 20,000-20,200 CNY/ton.
Supply side: According to reports from Thailand on October 5, between September 24 and 30, a total of 141,472 rai (approximately 23,000 hectares) of rubber plantations in Rayong, Chanthaburi, Chachoengsao, and Sa Kaeo provinces were damaged, affecting 7,679 rubber farmers. Expectations of a short-term supply contraction are supporting upward price pressure.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
