October 9th News
I. Weekly Market Review: Prices Stabilize and Rebound, Market Sentiment Improves
According to the latest data, on October 9th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was reported at 8,633.33 CNY per ton, an increase of 0.78% from the beginning of the month (8,566.67 CNY per ton), showing a slight upward trend.
From the price trend, this week, the acrylic acid price ended its previous sideways consolidation and showed a slight rebound. At the same time, the price of the upstream raw material propylene was even stronger. On October 9th, the benchmark price of propylene in China was 9,977.67 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.78% from the beginning of the month, providing strong support to the cost side of acrylic acid.
II. Technical Analysis: The Moving Average System Sends Positive Signals
Using the provided spot market analysis tools, we can interpret the current market momentum from a technical perspective.
Current Market Commentary: Examining the recent price chart, the 20-day moving average (green line) remains in a gradual downtrend, signaling continued downward pressure over the medium to long term. However, the price has recently attempted to break above and hold steady above the 10-day moving average (blue line). If the price can sustain itself above the 10-day MA in the coming days and push the 10-day MA above the 20-day MA, it would confirm the establishment of a short-term rebound. The current narrow upward range reflects the market’s ongoing effort to recalibrate its technical indicators.
3. Fundamental Drivers
1. Strong cost support: The significant increase in the price of upstream propylene (+2.78%) has directly raised the production cost of acrylic acid. With profit margins being squeezed, factories have a strong desire to maintain prices, which is the core driving force behind the stabilization and rebound of acrylic acid prices this week.
2. Downstream Demand Follow-Up: Market feedback indicates that, following a moderate price correction and stabilization, downstream manufacturers have shown renewed purchasing enthusiasm. The “active follow-up” suggests that rigid demand remains intact, and the market has not yet experienced a severe situation where prices are firm but supply is constrained.
3. Position Analysis: From a historical percentile perspective, the current acrylic acid price is at a high level compared to the past 10 days, but it remains at a medium to low level relative to the 30-day, 60-day, and one-year periods. This suggests that although there has been a short-term rebound in the price, the overall valuation is still not high, providing a certain degree of safety margin and room for further rebound.
4. Outlook for the Future Market
Overall, this week the acrylic acid market in China achieved a slight increase under the dual influence of cost-driven factors and downstream inventory replenishment.
Short-term outlook: The market is expected to remain volatile but generally firm in the near term. The key focus will be whether the 10-day moving average can sustain a decisive crossover above the 20-day moving average. If upstream propylene prices stay resilient, acrylic acid prices could test higher resistance levels. Traders are advised to maintain reasonable inventory levels and add to positions on dips, while avoiding chasing higher prices.
