October 12th News
According to the commodity market analysis system, the Chinese formic acid market showed a sideways trend after a post-holiday increase. On October 9th, the benchmark price of formic acid was 2,100 CNY per ton, an increase of 100 CNY per ton from the previous day, and then the price stabilized.
The increase is driven by the supply side: manufacturers in China have the intention to raise prices but lack the ability to continuously push them up.
The thrust comes from the supply side. During the holiday, mainstream manufacturers in China stopped selling at low prices, and on October 8th, the price stabilized at around 2000 CNY per ton; after the holiday, production enterprises actively raised their quotes to stimulate downstream purchases, leading to a jump in the average transaction price on October 9th. The inventory structure also supported this move: the inventory of production enterprises in China is slightly above the median, while the social inventory in the circulation sector is relatively low.
A sideways market is the baseline scenario; a breakout will require new developments on either the demand or supply side.
Demand is the most direct constraint on current prices. Terminal orders are scattered, and downstream acceptance of 2100 CNY/ton is generally limited; manufacturers have publicly stated their intention to maintain prices, showing little motivation to offer discounts, making a sideways market the most likely scenario.
Overall, this round of price increases represents a one-time shift driven by supply-side factors. In the short term, prices are likely to trade sideways, with 2,100 CNY per tonne approaching the upper limit acceptable to downstream users. Going forward, the market is expected to remain largely range-bound.
