October 13th, according to reports
Recently, the spot market for natural rubber has been continuously rising due to factors such as an increase in futures prices and disaster-affected production areas. The average difference indicator shows that the current price is in a clear upward trend. However, the price over a 1-year period is already in a high range, and with weakening demand for tire imports from downstream sectors, the room for further increases is limited. There is a need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback from the high levels.
I. Data Description
The most recent available data is up to October 12, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Table of Finite Differences
| Difference Type | Value on 2026.10.12 | Value on 2026.10.11 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 280.00 | 208.34 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | 305.84 | 216.66 | + |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | 298.33 | 292.50 | + |
III. Signals and Trend Assessment
Signal Status Judgment: Clear upward signal
Trend direction conclusion: Clearly upward. Reason: The change directions of the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences compared to the previous day are completely consistent, and the values of these three average differences are all positive, which meets the criteria for a clearly upward trend according to the average difference method.
IV. Positional Space Reference
Natural rubber 1-year cycle price is at the 5th level out of 5 levels (high position), with limited room for increase.
Five, 1-year price trend chart
VI. Fundamental Analysis Reference
Spot market: On October 12, the natural rubber market in the Qingdao region continued to rise. The main futures contract of Shanghai Rubber extended its strong performance. Spot traders raised their quotes by 400~600 CNY/ton. The mainstream prices for 2024 Yunnan Treasure/Guangken/Haibao were 20,000~20,300 CNY/ton; for 2025 Yunnan Treasure/Guangken/Haibao, the mainstream prices were 20,100~20,400 CNY/ton; and for Vietnam 3L, the mainstream prices were 20,700~20,800 CNY/ton.
Production‑side: On October 9, natural rubber raw material prices in Thailand rose, with smoked sheet quoted at THB 90.00/kg, up THB 0.50/kg; latex concentrate at THB 87.00/kg, also up THB 0.50/kg; and cup lump at THB 79.25/kg, unchanged. Earlier, in late September, approximately 23,000 hectares of rubber plantations across multiple regions in Thailand were hit by adverse weather, providing temporary support to the supply side.
Demand side: In the first eight months of 2026, U.S. tire imports totaled 186.22 million units, down 4% year on year; in the first nine months of this year, U.S. electric vehicle sales fell 30.7% compared with the same period last year, accounting for only 6% of total car sales. Weaker downstream demand for tires could weigh on the long-term outlook for natural rubber prices.
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
