October 14th, according to reports
This daily report is compiled based on the latest spot and average difference data. Currently, toluene as a whole is in a high-level fluctuation pattern. The cost side is strongly supported by rising crude oil prices, geopolitical factors in the Middle East, and tight spot supply in China. However, there is a clear divergence in profitability downstream, with weak buying interest, limiting the short-term upside potential and resulting in a trend that is characterized by a bearish bias.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Average Difference Type | Value on 2026.10.13 (CNY/ton) | Value on 2026.10.12 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 20.00 | 75.33 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | 128.33 | 100.67 | + |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 139.50 | 148.83 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current combination of three deviation change direction symbols is (－, ＋, －), which belongs to a rebound (biased bearish) signal.
Three, conclusions on trend directions
The current price trend is oscillating, reason: the change directions of the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent, not meeting the criteria for a clear upward/downward trend, indicating a rebound with a bias towards decline in an oscillating range.
Fundamental supporting validation: On October 13, Sinopec's listed price for toluene in South China was 9,250 CNY/ton, while the mainstream spot price for toluene in East China was 9,000-9,100 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Overnight gains in crude oil prices boosted the aromatics market. The shortage of spot supply in China and geopolitical factors provided cost support. However, downstream profitability varied significantly, with most categories incurring losses, leading to insufficient buying interest and no clear unilateral trend in prices.
IV. Positional Space Reference
The 60-day price is in the fifth tier (high), and the 3-month price is also in the fifth tier (high), suggesting limited short-term upside.
1 year cycle price is in the 4th tier (medium-high), with a certain level of cost support in the medium to long term, and the downside risk is relatively manageable.
5. Trend Chart Display
VI. Data Notes
The latest available data is up to October 13, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
VII. Risk Disclosure
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
