October 13th News
According to the commodity market analysis system: On October 12, the intraday price of lithium carbonate decreased by 5.8%, falling to 114,000 CNY/ton, reaching the lowest point of the year. At the same time, the main contract for lithium carbonate (LC2701) on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened at 115,500 CNY/ton, hit the daily limit down during the session, and reached a low of 104,680 CNY/ton. It finally closed at 104,740 CNY/ton, with a single-day decline of 11.79%, setting a new low for the year. This was also the first time it closed below the 110,000 CNY/ton mark since December 19, 2025.
Supply increment expectations and peak season demand validation resonance
Supply Side: News of the resumption of production at Chinese lithium mines has been coming thick and fast, sharply boosting expectations for future supply growth.
October 11, Jiangte Motor announced that the company received the "Safety Facility Design Review Opinion for the 3 million tons/year mining project of the Qiankeng Lithium Mine in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province" issued by the National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau. The review in principle agreed to the safety facility design, allowing the Qiankeng Lithium Mine to enter a critical phase of legal construction. The theoretical annual production capacity of the mine is approximately 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.
Meanwhile, the world's largest single spodumene ore deposit, the Jianxiawo lithium mine in China, has restarted its approval process after the environmental impact assessment was revoked, with a full production annual capacity of 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.
Overseas, shipments of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe are gradually resuming, and a lithium mining project in Brazil has resumed production, both contributing to supply replenishment. The key issue lies in the timing mismatch: most of these projects will not begin generating actual production volumes until 2027 or later. As a result, while the incremental supply does not alter the current spot‑market balance, it has nonetheless pushed down the valuation midpoint for longer‑dated contracts.
Demand Side: Peak-season strength falls short, and expectations of export policies add further uncertainty.
In September, China's new energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1,084,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7% and a month-on-month increase of 7.8%; from January to September, the cumulative retail sales were 7,758,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%.
Overseas, the European Union plans to impose an annual import cap of 350,000 units on hybrid vehicles from non-European countries, with the measure set to take effect as early as December 1. The cap will be 350,000 vehicles in the first year and will increase by 6% annually thereafter, for a period of four years. Meanwhile, China has explicitly opposed replacing multilateral rules with “voluntary export restraints,” thereby undermining market confidence in the sustainability of demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In summary: This round of price declines reflects a shift in the pricing anchor rather than a collapse in actual supply and demand. Supply-side developments have altered expectations for available volumes beyond 2027, while demand‑side data have revised assumptions about next year’s growth rate. With the spot market remaining relatively tight, front‑month contracts have already completed much of their valuation compression. This also explains why, over the same period, the decline in spot prices has been less than half that of futures. With demand currently in its peak season, the supply‑demand balance remains tight and market support persists; we expect prices to trade in a range in the near term.
