October 13 News Curve Comparison Chart
According to Spotcom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in China was 9,390 CNY/ton on October 1st and 9,950 CNY/ton on October 13th, an increase of 5.96%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) in China was 12,133 CNY/ton on October 1st and 12,733 CNY/ton on October 13th, an increase of 4.95%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) in China was 10,475 CNY/ton on October 1st and 11,087 CNY/ton on October 13th, an increase of 5.85%.
Geographical factors support high crude oil prices, and strong external ethylene markets provide cost support for PE. The profit from oil refining continues to be compressed, and the upward transmission of costs is not smooth, making it difficult to drive a significant increase in the market alone.
China's PE operating rates are maintained at a moderate level, with maintenance units gradually restarting and production slowly recovering. New capacities continue to be released, and supply pressure is expected to increase quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter. After the holiday, there was a small inventory accumulation, but overall inventory levels remain low, providing some support to spot prices in the short term.
Currently, agricultural films are entering the traditional peak season, with orders for greenhouse and mulch films being released, which is the main driver for polyethylene. Packaging and hollow products have seen a slight recovery, but improvements in sectors such as pipes and injection molding are limited. Downstream users are resistant to high-priced raw materials, mostly purchasing on an as-needed basis, and the willingness to stockpile is low, limiting the sustainability of the peak season support.
After the rapid rise in PE prices following the holiday, there is a high probability of entering a period of high-level fluctuation in the short term. The support from the peak agricultural film season is gradually weakening, and with the release of new production capacity, there is insufficient momentum for a continued significant increase. If crude oil does not show a clear surge, there is a risk of the price center dropping.
