October 15th, according to reports
Key Takeaway: In the short term, methanol is caught in a volatile, bearish supply‑demand dynamic. Negative demand-side feedback, coupled with rising supply expectations, is exerting significant upward pressure, keeping prices at mid‑to‑high levels with limited room for further gains.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Difference Type | Value on 2026.10.14 | Value on 2026.10.13 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | -281.00 | -567.00 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | -165.50 | -45.50 | - |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | -24.16 | 19.67 | - |
The latest available data is up to October 14, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current signal is a weak rebound (bearish).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is choppy (bearish).
Reason: The directions of the three differences compared to the previous day are (+, -, -), not completely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, and the overall situation is in a volatile range. From a fundamental perspective, high prices have led to deep losses for downstream MTO enterprises that rely on external procurement, and they have gradually reduced production or shut down, leading to negative feedback on the demand side. At the same time, new methanol plants in China are being commissioned, the Brunei plant has restarted, and there is an expectation of subsequent import recovery, increasing supply-side pressure. Only low port inventories and shipping disruptions provide limited support, with overall bearish factors prevailing.
4. Position and Spatial Reference
Methanol prices for 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods are all in the 4th tier (high-mid range, within the 60%-80% interval of the cycle). The short-term upside is limited, but the downside is temporarily manageable due to the support from coal costs and low port inventories.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
