October 14th report:
I. Weekly Market Review: Prices Rallied in a Stepped Pattern Before Stabilizing at Higher Levels
This week, the acrylic acid market in China showed a clear stepwise upward trend. As of October 14, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 8966.67 CNY/ton, an increase of 4.67% compared to the beginning of the month (8566.67 CNY/ton).
II. Core Driver: Strong Cost Pushes Prices Higher, Supporting Firm Acrylic Acid Pricing
This week, the core logic for the upward trend of acrylic acid in China lies in the strong push from the cost side.
Data show that on October 14, the benchmark price of propylene (an upstream feedstock) stood at RMB 10,701.00 per ton, a substantial increase of 10.23% from the beginning of the month (RMB 9,707.67 per ton).
The sharp rise in the price of propylene, a raw material, has significantly increased the production cost of acrylic acid. Under the pressure of rising costs, Chinese acrylic acid manufacturers have a strong desire to maintain higher prices, and their quotations have followed the upward trend, leading to a rapid decrease in the availability of low-priced products in the market.
III. Technical and Position Analysis of Xianhuotong: The Moving Averages Have Crossed Bullishly, with Prices at High Levels in the Short to Medium Term
Combining the moving average chart and position data shown in the image, the market is sending a clear positive signal:
From the line chart, it can be seen that the 10-day moving average successfully crossed above the 20-day moving average between October 11 and 12, with the difference turning from negative to positive. This aligns with the principle that a moving average crossover indicates the start of an uptrend, confirming the strong performance this week. Currently, the 5-day moving average is closely following the price as it rises rapidly, indicating the initial formation of a bullish alignment.
Position indicators are comprehensively rising: According to the data table, as prices increase, acrylic acid has fully entered a "high position" at 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day intervals. This indicates that prices in China have risen relatively quickly in the short term, and the market is in a state of localized overheating.
There is still room for the long-term trend: Notably, its “one-year positioning” remains only at the median level. This suggests that, despite the recent sharp rally, from a longer-term perspective, the current price has yet to reach historical highs; the move is largely driven by cyclical valuation repair and cost‑push factors.
4. Future Market Outlook
Overall, the current acrylic acid market in China is in a dual favorable phase of "strong cost support + technical breakthrough." In the short term, if the price of upstream propylene remains high, the acrylic acid market will continue to maintain a firm pricing trend.
