October 16th, according to reports
[Key Takeaway] In the short term, methanol is exhibiting a weak rebound amid bearish volatility. Negative demand-side feedback, coupled with the release of new supply, suggests a high probability that prices will remain under downward pressure in the near term.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Difference Type | Value as of 2026.10.15 (Today) | Value as of 2026.10.14 (Yesterday) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | -123.33 | -281.00 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | -282.84 | -165.50 | - |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | -51.83 | -24.16 | - |
The most recent available data is up to October 15, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current signal is a weak rebound (bearish).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend is range-bound (bearish), for the following reasons: the three moving averages’ day-over-day changes do not all point in the same direction, failing to meet the criteria for a clear uptrend or downtrend; the change pattern—(+, −, −)—aligns with the characteristics of a weak rebound leaning toward the downside. On the short term, the 5‑day moving average spread has narrowed only as a mild correction following oversold conditions, while on the medium to long term, the 10‑day and 20‑day moving average spreads continue to decline. Coupled with the gradual commissioning of new methanol production facilities in China, widespread shutdowns and reduced operating rates at coastal MTO plants due to losses, repeated failed auctions in major producing regions, and continuous price cuts by producers, overall prices are under significant downward pressure.
4. Position and Spatial Reference
The 60-day cycle price of methanol in China is in the 3rd tier (median), while the 3-month and 1-year cycle prices are in the 4th tier (upper-middle). The short-term upside is limited, and there is still some room for downward movement.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
