October 19th News
[Key Takeaway] Methanol is currently trading in a choppy, slightly weaker correction. Negative demand-side feedback, coupled with the gradual release of supply from China, has led to a sustained unwinding of earlier price gains, leaving the market short of upward momentum in the near term.
The latest available data is up to October 18, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Mean Difference Variation Table
| Difference Type | Value on October 18, 2026 | Value on October 17, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | -11.33 | 5.34 | - |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | -236.17 | -329.50 | + |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | -154.50 | -109.50 | - |
2. Signal Status Judgment
Rebound (biased towards short).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
Volatility (bearish bias). Reason: The three moving averages did not all shift in the same direction as the previous day, failing to meet the criteria for a clear uptrend or downtrend; thus, the market is exhibiting a choppy, range-bound pattern. The signal combination of (-, +, -) suggests a bearish pullback. On the fundamentals front, downstream overseas‑sourced MTO producers are posting deep losses due to high methanol prices, prompting many plants to shut down or reduce capacity, which has triggered negative demand-side feedback. Meanwhile, several previously idled methanol units in China have resumed operations, and new capacity is gradually coming online, intensifying supply‑side pressure. Recently, spot prices for methanol in major producing regions have continued to decline, reinforcing an overall bearish outlook.
4. Position and Spatial Reference
The 60-day cycle price of methanol is in the 3rd tier (medium), while the 3-month and 1-year cycle prices are in the 4th tier (medium-high). There is significant upward pressure, and there is still some room for a pullback.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
