October 21st, news
On October 20, 2026, the Chinese PVC spot market followed the futures market and moved up with fluctuations. Dealers in major markets such as Zibo and Linyi generally raised their quotes by 30-50 CNY/ton compared to the previous day, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and moderate trading. Based on the average difference indicator, the current PVC price is in a strong rebound (bullish) fluctuation phase. In the short term, the 60-day cycle price is at a high level with limited room for further increases, while the 1-year cycle price is at a medium-low level and still has some potential for long-term growth.
I. Analysis of the Mean Difference Indicator
The latest available PVC price data is up to October 20, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
Mean Difference Variation Table
| Difference Type | Value on 2026.10.20 | Value on 2026.10.19 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 111.00 | 50.60 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | 3.50 | -22.10 | + |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | -12.25 | -11.75 | - |
Signal State Determination
The current combination of sign changes in the mean difference is (+, +, -), corresponding to a strong rebound signal (slightly bullish, with a rebound character).
Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend in PVC prices is a rebound with a bullish bias. Reason: The changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus the overall situation is in a consolidation range; combined with the symbol combination (+, +, -), it is determined to be a strong rebound, indicating a bullish attribute.
II. Price Position and Spatial Reference
60-day cycle: Currently at Level 5 (high), with limited short-term upside potential.
3-month cycle: At the 5th level (high), mid-term upward momentum is constrained.
1 year cycle: in the 2nd tier (lower-middle), with some room for long-term growth.
III. Latest Spot Market Fundamentals
Spot prices: On October 20, 2026, the PVC market in Zibo and Linyi regions followed the upward trend of futures. Dealers' offers increased by 30-50 CNY/ton compared to the previous day. The mainstream quotation range for calcium carbide method 5 type was 4,950-5,030 CNY/ton. Shandong Xinfadian's SG-5 calcium carbide-based PVC factory price was 4,870 CNY/ton with cash payment, with the plant operating at 80% capacity and running normally.
Import and export data: In early September, China’s imports of primary-form plastics totaled 1.82 million tons, down 15.4% year on year.
Transaction Status: Currently, the market is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, and overall trading activity remains moderate.
IV. 1-Year Price Trend Chart
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
