Future market expectations, half optimistic, half cautious

According to the monitoring data, on September 12, China's coal price index (the national composite index) was 156.8 points, down 0.4 points from the previous period.

Specifically, this week, the port price around Bohai Sea is stable and strong, the price of power coal in the producing area is stable and rising, the price of coking coal is weak, and the market is weak. On the port side, there are big differences between the supplier and the demander, the actual transaction is not active, the coal consumption of downstream power plants has increased, but it is still general, the overall wait-and-see mood is strong, the seller is affected by the rising of the coal price of the origin and part of the line freight, and the price-holding mentality is strong; on the production area, the coal mine of the main origin of Shanxi and Mongolia maintains the environmental protection and safety inspection efforts. Continuously strengthen, part of the coal production capacity release is limited; coking coal market, although recent environmental protection inspections are still frequent, but there is no large-scale production restriction requirements, short-term production restriction has more impact, the market pressure is expected to weaken in the short term. At present, it is expected that the price of northern ports will continue to fluctuate narrowly next week. The coming of high temperature weather in South China has further stimulated the coal consumption of power plants. The coal storage of the six power plants is also lower than before. The demand for spare goods in some power plants will help to increase the price of coal. In the long run, before the end of Daqing, the intensity of environmental protection and safety supervision will not be reduced. There will be certain restrictions on production in the production area, and the demand of coal market will increase under the support of various powerful factors. Coal prices may show a trend of fluctuating rise.

[Bohai Rim Port] As of September 11, the total inventory of the four major ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.068 million tons, an increase of 147,000 tons over last week. Recently, with Daqing approaching, environmental protection and safety inspection in the main producing areas have been strengthened. Some coal mines control the production rhythm. In addition, the demand for land sales is still relatively strong, the price of producing areas has been rising slightly, the willingness of traders to ship to the port is low, and the port supply structure is again unbalanced, which supports the weak price rise of the port. In addition, the high temperatures in the southeastern coastal areas are coming again. The daily consumption of coastal power plants of the six major power groups has increased by 24% year on year. Coal storage has fallen below 16 million tons. In addition, hydropower is about to enter the traditional period of inertia. There is a demand for spare goods in some power plants, and the release of procurement demand boosts the price of coal in ports. Prices fluctuated slightly in the area of

[East China] On the coking coal side, the price of coking coal continues to weaken, the sales pressure of coal mines rises, and the interest coking will continue in the short term. The market will continue to weaken, but from the perspective of the long-term association price of coking coal, the decline should be limited.

[North China Region] Coking coal ex-factory prices in the main coking coal producing areas of Mengxi have steadily declined. Sales of individual coal washing plants have declined, ex-factory prices have declined slightly. The second round of price reduction has been carried out in coking coke prices of large-scale coal in the region, and the demand for coking coal procurement has weakened, resulting in a slight decline in coking coal prices in the western region. In terms of power coal, the price of coal in northern Shanxi is relatively stable. Due to strict environmental safety inspection, coal supply is slightly tight, and some coal mines expect prices to rise slightly.

[Northeast, Eastern Mongolia] The overall market remained stable, while some areas showed a slight increase.

[Central and South China] Due to the recurrence of high-temperature weather, the electricity load in Central and South China showed an upward trend this week, the power plant started to increase by about one unit, and the overall inventory continued to decline weakly. As of September 11, a total of 4669,000 tons of coal had been stored in the power plants in Hubei Province, down by about 231,000 tons from last week.

[Northwest China] Yulin and Ordos began to restrict the supply of pyrotechnic products. Some coal mines have been notified that production may be suspended in the later period. In addition to environmental protection and safety inspection, the coal supply in Yulin and Ordos is relatively tight. In addition, the demand for residential coal is good in the near future, which supports the sustained rise of coal prices. In the short term, coal prices will continue to rise steadily. With the advent of Daqing, coal mine safety supervision in Sichuan and Yunnan has been further strengthened, environmental protection situation has become stricter, supply and demand situation will decline, and market pressure will continue to increase.