Management should be strengthened in case of too much imported coal in China

From January to September, China imported 250 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 21 million tons. At present, the implementation of import quotas has been weakened, and no specific restrictions have been put forward; some ports and users who have used up quotas have obtained new quotas, and the customs clearance time has been extended, but it has not stopped. According to the current progress, it is expected that the number of coal imports will reach 340 million tons this year, an increase of 60 million tons year on year. According to the rough statistics, in the third quarter, the import of coal in coastal areas accounted for 29.4% of the total amount of coal transferred into the sea in the same period; the impact of imported coal on the domestic market deepened.

If it is allowed to continue to develop, it is not only the problem of falling coal prices, but also the more serious problem is that it affects the smooth operation of various links of the domestic mining road, port, navigation and power, and even affects the healthy development of the domestic coal market In the first half of the year, the coal transportation situation is relatively optimistic, and the railway and port shipments maintain a positive growth; in the second half of the year, the market situation turns sharply downward. Due to the high base of coal transportation in domestic ports and railways in the second half of last year, and the low base of imported coal in the second half of last year, since July, both the transportation volume of Daqin line and the throughput of ports around Bohai Sea have been impeded, with a negative increase in coal transportation volume year on year. In terms of coal price, it is even more bleak.

In the case of insufficient demand and high inventory of power plants, the coal price is running at a low level and continues to hover below the break even point From the perspective of market operation in the first half of this year, imported coal not only complements domestic coal resources, but also does not affect the smooth transportation of domestic coal. In the first half of this year, the import of coal in China's coastal areas is about 115 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons on a year-on-year basis, which has little impact on the domestic coastal market. In the first half of this year, coal imports from coastal areas accounted for 24.2% of the total amount of coal transferred by sea. From the perspective of port coal price changes, although coal price has entered the blue area for many times, it conforms to the market law of "good demand, rising coal price; poor demand, falling coal price" In the second half of the year, the coal market and transportation situation has changed sharply; although it is in the peak of coal consumption in summer, due to the impact of ultra-high pressure clean energy and the surge of imported coal, the demand of domestic coal market is not strong, the number of coal ships arriving at the port is reduced, and the port shipping volume has a negative growth.

And the price of coal has also dropped from 614 CNY/ton in early July to 570 CNY/ton at present. The most influential factor is the influx of imported coal. In the third quarter, the coastal areas imported about 72 million tons of coal, accounting for 29.4% of the total amount of coal transferred by sea, a significant increase in the proportion China takes imported coal as an important weight to stabilize the supply and adjust the price, and adopts the dynamic control mechanism of "control and progress". At the same time, in the peak season of domestic coal consumption, when the market is tightening, the import will be liberalized, and when the market supply exceeds the demand, the import will be appropriately restricted, so as to ensure the stable operation of the domestic coal market. However, in October, the impact of imported coal deepened, not only for the price of coal, but also for the pressure of coal supply exceeding demand in coastal coal market, the production and transportation of mines, roads, ports and airlines were idle, the transportation of Railways and ports were blocked, and when the peak season came, coal pressure on ports occurred; indirectly, the dividend loss of domestic supply side reform was caused.

The author believes that in order to ensure that all aspects of domestic coal production and transportation need to be unblocked, stabilize the current coal market, and ensure that transportation returns to normal, we should strictly enforce import quotas or introduce specific measures. Even if the level control target of imported coal can not be achieved, it is necessary to control it within a reasonable area, and strive to control the monthly import volume within 25 million tons in the fourth quarter, and the annual import volume within 325 million tons; next year, the import coal will continue to be controlled within 300 million tons. In addition, an important issue should be taken into account: the dependence on imported coal is too strong and easy to be controlled by others; once the imported coal is limited, the consequences are unimaginable.