Strong coke oscillation

Since the middle of September, the coke price has experienced a wave of rapid decline, with the largest decline of 15.3%. At present, the coke price has overdrawn the pessimistic expectation of the steel market, and the later coke price is expected to go out of the strong oscillation market. At the end of October, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking plant was 73.26 yuan, 19.27 yuan lower than 92.53 yuan at the end of September. The main reason is that the steel plant's policy of raising and reducing 50 CNY/ton of coking plant has been fully implemented, and the coking profit has been further reduced. From the downstream screw steel market, the demand toughness of screw steel is still very strong, which provides certain support for the demand of coke at the raw material end. At the same time, the profit of screw steel plate is relatively high. Under the background of pessimistic macro expectation, the downward pressure of screw steel profit is relatively large. However, after the early collapse, the possibility of further collapse of screw steel is relatively low. On the contrary, under the background of stable supply and demand of coke, it is expected to enter the rebound channel.

At the end of October, the coke inventory of the steel plant was 4.5712 million tons, an increase of 3700 tons compared with 4.5675 million tons at the end of September; the coke inventory of the port was 4.448 million tons, an decrease of 89 thousand tons compared with 4.537 million tons at the end of September; the coke inventory of the coking plant was 514800 tons, an increase of 19.9 thousand tons compared with 315800 tons at the end of September. This year, the coke inventory has been high, but there is no big problem in the supply and demand side. On the contrary, after the coke profit is further compressed, there is little room for the upstream coking coal price to continue to fall. At the same time, the market expects that the supply and demand side of the coke market will shift from relative balance to loose supply due to the continuous increase of coking capacity. Therefore, the high inventory of Coke will not affect the supply and demand balance of coke itself, and the pessimistic expectation of coke price on downstream steel may be over digested. By the end of October, the average daily output of molten iron of 247 steel plants in China was 2.16 million tons, which was 58 thousand tons lower than that of 2.218 million tons at the end of September. In the last week of October, the weekly output of screw steel of major steel mills in China was 3.5372 million tons, an increase of 25 thousand tons compared with that of 3.5347 at the end of September. By the end of October, the inventory of deformed steel bars in major steel mills in China was 2460500 tons, increased by 213600 tons compared with 2246900 tons at the end of September; the social inventory of deformed steel bars was 3721700 tons, decreased by 1076300 tons compared with 4798000 tons at the end of September. In October, the actual de stocking strength of steel is large, which shows that the steel demand toughness is strong. In the later stage, the downstream steel demand is expected to pick up steadily, supporting the demand for coke. In short, at present, the rapid decline of coke price has overdrawn the market's pessimistic expectation of downstream steel, and the later coke price is expected to go out of the strong oscillation market.