Panic over the port coal price has stabilized?

After the continuous decline of port coal price, a small amount of demand has been released in the downstream, transaction activity has increased, and the price has gradually stabilized. Market analysts pointed out that in November, on the one hand, with the heating seasons in North China, Northeast China and other places opening, the price of mine mouth in the main production area was supported to a certain extent, resulting in high shipping costs, and traders were unwilling to continue to ship at low prices; on the other hand, the market coal price fell below the long-term price, stimulating downstream power plants to release part of the demand for bidding and procurement, and panicking the market The market formed a certain support, driving the rational rebound in the low coal price. However, some analysts believe that the market is not optimistic about the stability of the current price, traders are not confident in the current price stability, there are some wait-and-see emotions, and they continue to pay attention to the sustainability of downstream procurement. In addition, the annual coal ordering meeting is just around the corner. In the case of high inventory, the power plant is not eager to pull a large amount of coal, so it is difficult to focus on procurement in a short period of time, or affect the rise of coal price. On November 11, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 550 CNY/ton. After 18 consecutive downturns, the last three phases began to operate stably, with a decrease of 33 CNY/ton or 5.7% compared with the same period last month; the price of cci5000 power coal was 480 CNY/ton, which was the same as the previous phase, with a decrease of 35 CNY/ton or 6.8% compared with the same period last month.

In terms of the latest market, on November 11, a small number of new inquiries were made at the port for high-quality low calorific value coal. Upstream suppliers held a strong price sentiment based on cost and other factors, and their quotations were up slightly. While downstream suppliers held a pessimistic price sentiment based on market expectations, and the upstream and downstream markets had different attitudes, and their views increased. In terms of imported coal, although the domestic market tends to be stable, influenced by factors such as the high inventory of domestic terminals, the number of imported coal inquiries on November 11 was less, the market wait-and-see increased, and the transaction activity was low. In terms of the downstream, the daily consumption of coastal power plants is basically stable around 580000 tons, without significant improvement. Inventory also remained basically at a constant level, with the supply of imported coal from changxiehe, the demand for power plants was weak. However, due to the current port price falls below the old Association and the cost performance is OK, there is a small amount of demand released from the power plant. The inventory of inland key power plants increased rapidly, and the willingness to replenish was restrained. As of November 12, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.54 million tons, with a decrease of 129000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year decrease of 787000 tons; the daily coal consumption was 579000 tons, with a increase of 23000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year increase of 7.1 tons; the available days were 28.5 days, with a decrease of 1.5 days and a year-on-year decrease of 5.6 days. There are two waves of strong cold air coming in this week. The daily consumption of key power plants will start to increase. The daily consumption of six coastal power plants will be completed soon. The downstream will start to de stock. The high daily consumption in winter and tight import will change the operation rhythm in the short term. From the perspective of producing area, the delivery of coal mine is general, and the price continues to be weak. Yulin, Shaanxi Province, saw a steady decline of 5-10 yuan. Due to the peak shifting production of downstream industrial enterprises, the delivery of coal mines was normal, and the pressure of price reduction remained. We will wait and see the market situation after the increase of heating coal demand on 25th of this month. The coal price in Ordos, Inner Mongolia continued to be weak, the stock of ports and power plants was high, the purchase volume of land sales and platform traders was small, and the support of short-term price increase was not strong; Shanxi The price of coal in northern Shanxi Province dropped a lot. Some of the coal mines dropped 20-30 yuan. The delivery of coal mines was normal, the inventory was low, and the expectation for the future was pessimistic.