Signs of improvement of the margin of deposit in the dual focus market

On November 19, the coal and steel coke giants gathered in Nanning, Guangxi, to participate in the 2020 coal and steel coke medium and long term contract negotiation meeting. It is reported that the meeting of Guangxi long term association made it clear that the price of Shanxi Coking Coal Group's 2020 long term association remained stable. In the context of the price stability of long term association, some local mines in Shanxi said they would hold up the price. According to the analysis of China coal resources network, the price of Shanxi large coal mine managers' Association is based on stability, with frequent recent coal mine accidents. The safety situation is tightening towards the end of the year. The mentality of coal mine price fixing is getting stronger. The downstream coke enterprises also consider that the subsequent supply may be tightened, and the weather may be limited. They are ready to increase the storage properly. The overall market sentiment is beginning to change.

In addition, at 13:50 on November 18, a gas explosion occurred in ermugou coal mine, Pingyao County, Jinzhong City, Shanxi Province, killing 15 people and injuring 9. On the afternoon of November 19, the "11.18" major gas explosion accident investigation group of ermugou Coal Industry Co., Ltd. of Pingyao Fengyan coal coke group was established, and the first plenary meeting was held to arrange the investigation work. Affected by the explosion, the production of all coal mines in Pingyao County has been stopped and the recovery time is to be determined. In addition to the shutdown of all coal mines in Pingyao County, individual coal mines in other areas of Jinzhong, Shanxi Province, reported that since zero o'clock on November 19, the coal mines will be shut down in an all-round way for safety education and learning. The tentative duration is one week, and the production activities of the coal washing plant will not be affected temporarily. In terms of the latest news, affected by the coal mine accident, at present, Fenwei understands that the provincial emergency management department, Jinzhong emergency management department and the local county and city emergency management department will start to inspect the safety of each coal mine from the 20th.

In the inspection, if any potential safety hazard is found, the production must be stopped immediately for rectification. Now, some coal mines in Jinzhong Area feedback that the relevant government inspectors have arrived at the mine since the 20th Safety inspection, to a certain extent, affects the normal production of coal mines. Since October, the price of low sulfur main coking coal in China has dropped sharply. The price of coal mines in the main production area has generally dropped within the range of 100-200 CNY/ton, and the price of some major large mines has dropped to a new low in recent two years. In the later stage, the industry insiders pointed out that the coking coal in the production area has fallen to a new low in the past two years. With the strengthening of coal mine safety inspection in the later stage, the completion of annual production tasks by some coal mines, the preparation of coking steel in winter near the end of the year, the expansion of downstream steel profits, the long-term price support and the tightening of imported coal control, the coking coal market shows signs of improvement.

In terms of the downstream coke market, due to the frequent impact of environmental protection early warning weather in the heating season, some coke enterprises in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other places have increased the frequency of intermittent production restriction, and the supply of coke has been limited to some extent. In addition, recent frequent coal mine accidents have brought strict safety inspection and long-term coal price stabilization. The cost of raw materials has been significantly supported, the mentality of coke enterprises has begun to improve, and the willingness to support prices has increased Strong, some of the oversold resources appear callback phenomenon. Cao Ying, a futures analyst at China investment Anxin, said recently that information on the positive market prices of coking coal and coke was frequent. The first incident is that a major accident in a coal mine in Pingyao caused the Shanxi provincial government to make special arrangements for the safety production of coal mines again. The coal mines in some areas will stop production for a week for rectification, which will have a phased impact on the supply of coal (accident coal mines are mainly coking coal and thin coking coal).

The second event is that the annual long-term association meeting of Shanxi Coking Coal Group in 2020 made it clear that the long-term association pricing remained stable, which provided psychological support for the main coking coal price that continued to fall in the near future. The third incident is that due to the impact of the polluted weather in Luliang and other places in Shanxi Province, the production restriction is tightened in stages. It is said that the proportion of production restriction of coking enterprises varies from 20% to 50%, which will last until the early morning of the 24th, which is a boost for the coking enterprises that have begun to try to increase recently. In recent years, the coal and coke market is actually in the process of continuously brewing the contradiction accumulation from quantitative change to qualitative change. "Of course, we also need to dialectically see that behind the changes in the market, there are still some supply-demand contradictions that have not yet changed, that is, the expectation that the seasonal demand for building steel is weak month on month is still there, the accumulated stock of raw materials in the early stage of the steel plant is relatively abundant, the storage space in winter is weaker than that in previous years, and the subjective production capacity of coking enterprises is abundant and so on." Cao Ying pointed out that in a comprehensive view, I We believe that the price of raw materials has basically seen a staged bottom, and whether there is a sustained upward drive next, we still need to wait for the further transformation of the contradiction and the unexpected supply shock of the raw material end.