Methanol market is expected to stabilize and rebound in the downstream industry

Recently, the market price of methanol has been rising for two months and then began to decline. On March 18, the market reference price was 2420 yuan (ton price, the same below), down 152 yuan from March 11. Industry insiders believe that although the fundamentals of methanol market is still in a weak state at present, with the production unit entering the maintenance season, the demand of downstream industry recovers, and the market is expected to stabilize and rebound in the near future. The pressure of supply has gradually eased. At present, the methanol market is well supplied and the port inventory is high, causing a short decline in price trend. However, due to the start of plant overhaul in spring, which involves a production capacity of more than 10 million tons, it can relieve the supply pressure and form a favorable market for methanol. Chen Dong, an analyst at Baocheng futures, said that domestic methanol enterprises have a strong seasonal overhaul, which is mainly concentrated in March to may, and postponed to April to June in some years. Up to now, more than 7 million tons of methanol units in China have planned routine maintenance. In addition, affected by environmental protection and production restriction, some enterprises also have maintenance plans. It is understood that at present, the operating load rate of methanol plant is about 71%, which is 4.4% higher than that of last month, at a high level in the same period of history.

However, in the second quarter, nearly 20 domestic methanol plants will enter the spring inspection period. As the main methanol production area, the capacity of Northwest China accounts for more than 50%. The spring inspection in this area involves a capacity of nearly 10 million tons, accounting for more than 77% of the total overhaul capacity. Among them, the 600000 T / a unit of the second phase of new ODA banner is planned to be shut down for maintenance in April, and the 900000 T / a unit of Inner Mongolia Rongxin is planned to be overhauled in late March or early April. In other areas, such as Shanghai Coking 1 million T / a unit in East China, it is also planned to rotate for maintenance from April to may, and the 200000 t / a unit in Daqing Oilfield in Northeast China is still in shutdown. "At that time, a large number of maintenance capacity will be withdrawn from the market, which will effectively relieve the supply pressure and benefit the methanol market." Chen Dong said. Port inventory is expected to decrease. At present, port inventory is relatively high, which will suppress the market price. However, with the start of equipment maintenance in the main methanol import areas, the import volume in the later period is expected to decrease, which will benefit the domestic methanol market. In terms of port inventory, due to the abundant supply of imported goods, the inventory is still on the rise. In February, the domestic methanol arrival reached 775000 tons, up from nearly 30% in the same period last year. As of February 28, the methanol port inventory reached 853500 tons, an increase of 114000 tons compared with that before the Spring Festival. According to the shipping schedule from the beginning of March to now, the arrival volume of methanol is still at a high level. "Recently, several units in Southeast Asia have been shut down for maintenance. China's import of methanol to the port is expected to gradually decline in late March, and the impact of import sources on the domestic market will gradually weaken."

Chen Dong said. It is understood that at present, a 850000t / a unit in Brunei has been shut down for maintenance, a 99000t / a unit in cartel and a 105000t / a unit in Oman will also be overhauled from the end of March to the middle of April. It is expected that the methanol production capacity involved in maintenance in Southeast Asia will be more than 5000000t in the near future, which will effectively alleviate the current high inventory status of methanol port. The downstream industry ushers in the peak season. The emerging downstream and traditional downstream industries of methanol have good news. At present, the emerging downstream MTO industry has good demand, with new production capacity expected to be put into production, and the demand of traditional industries such as formaldehyde will also usher in the peak season, which give strong support to the methanol market. According to Chen Dong, after the long Spring Festival holiday, MTO units such as Zhejiang Xingxing, Fude energy, Zhongmei Yulin, Zhongtian hechuang, Qinghai Salt Lake, Zhongyuan ethylene, etc. have resumed operation or increased load successively, and the unit operating rate of the industry has risen to 84.05%, which has returned to the normal high level. Recently, Inner Mongolia Jiutai 600000t / a MTO and Nanjing Chengzhi 600000t / a MTO two sets of new devices are planned to put into production. Suppliers have been required to start to supply, and the demand increment signal is clear. The demand for formaldehyde and other traditional downstream industries began to recover gradually after the Spring Festival. Last week, the start-up rate of formaldehyde industry increased from 15% to 33%; the start-up rate of DME industry was stable at 43%; the start-up rate of MTBE industry increased slightly by 0.02% to 48%; the start-up rate of acetic acid industry increased by 1.02% to 91.53%; the start-up rate of DMF industry increased by 5% to 64%. The trend of emerging demand growth combined with traditional demand is good, which is expected to lift the methanol market out of the declining trend and counter attack upward.