In November, the main indicators of the national economy exceeded expectations

The National Bureau of statistics released the operation data of national economy in November. The two sides of supply and demand have improved significantly. The data on industry, consumption and investment are bright, and the main economic indicators are better than expected. The industry pointed out that with the gradual emergence of policy effects such as "six stability" and counter cyclical regulation, the signal of economic stabilization has been further enhanced. The growth rate of industrial production has picked up significantly. In November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year, 1.5 percentage points faster than last month, the third highest growth rate this year after March and June. Among them, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.9% year-on-year, 2.7 percentage points higher than that of all industries above Designated Size, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of last month. There are also many bright spots in domestic demand. In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8.0% year-on-year in November, 0.8 percentage points faster than last month.

The online retail sales grew rapidly. From January to November, the online retail sales of physical goods in China increased by 19.7%, 11.7 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period. In terms of investment, from January to November, a total of 53371.8 billion yuan of fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was completed nationwide, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that from January to October. Among them, industrial investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than that from January to October. Investment in high-tech industry increased by 14.1% year on year, 8.9 percentage points higher than the total investment. Private investment increased by 4.5% year on year, 0.1 percentage point faster than that from January to October. "The main economic indicators were better than expected, and the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend." Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said at the press conference of the new China Development Office on the same day that the main indicators can be summarized into several characteristics: first, the growth of industry and service industry is accelerated, and the market sales is accelerated; second, the employment situation is stable, and the growth of foreign trade and foreign investment is stable; third, the economic structure continues to improve, and the market is in advance It is expected to improve. "This fully reflects that under the complex and severe international environment, China's economy does have strong resilience, potential and turning space, and also shows that the basic trend of China's economic stability and long-term improvement has not changed." Fu Linghui also pointed out that from the perspective of the fourth quarter, there were some positive changes in the main indicators in November, and it should be based and conditional to achieve the expected annual growth target.

Market confidence has also generally increased. Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that the recent meetings of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the executive meeting of the State Council, and the central economic work conference sent signals of increasing the importance of stable growth, especially the support for infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will be further increased, and the expectation for economic stability will be enhanced. Under the influence of such factors as the increase of counter cyclical adjustment policy and low base number, the probability of economic stabilization in the fourth quarter is relatively high. Yang yewei, chief Macro Analyst of Southwest Securities (4.690, 0.06, 1.30%), pointed out that the economic data in November showed that the recovery trend of economic stability continued to be confirmed, and the supply and demand level improved. As the global economy tends to be stable and domestic policies for stable growth continue, demand will continue to improve in the future. Infrastructure construction will slightly improve with the centralized issuance of local special bonds, while the improvement of terminal demand and price recovery will drive the recovery of manufacturing investment. From the perspective of future prospects, there is still a huge space for China's economic growth. Fu Linghui pointed out that industrial growth is still an important driving force to support China's economic growth. There is also great potential for investment. There is a large space for investment in the fields of people's livelihood such as pension, education and medical care; there is also a large space for the development of new generation infrastructure such as Internet and communication 5g; there is also a large space for investment in transportation construction such as railway, rail transit and urban parking lot. China's consumption prospects are also very broad. China has the largest middle-income group in the world. China's residents' income is growing gradually, the employment situation is relatively stable, and the coverage of social security is expanding, which is conducive to stabilizing consumption expectations. A series of measures to encourage and support consumption development are also conducive to consumption growth. "In the future, the trend of China's domestic demand driven and consumption driven development will be more obvious, and the sustainability of growth will be further improved."