The polypropylene market has been pulled up

2020 is destined to be an extraordinary year. After the spread of new coronaviruses worldwide and the rapid decline of the national crude oil and PP markets, April 7, 2020 will usher in a crazy counterattack in the opening year. Analyze whether the futures are driving the spot, or the shortage of medical supplies is driving the futures ...

1. Rapidly rising ex-factory price

One day's increase was as high as 200-500 CNY/ton, this round of single-day increase became the most violent one after the rapid decline of the Spring Festival. This round of strong oversold rebound driving factors crude oil and futures give the market a full opportunity for speculation, and the ex-factory price increase is a stimulant to the market.

2、 Spot comparison found

PP futures showed a strong trend of high opening on April 7th. After the futures and crude oil were weak at the same time, they rebounded quickly due to the bottom reversal of crude oil. The short-term cycle formed a bottom reversal pattern, which helped PP futures rebound quickly and formed a high opening limit on April 7. situation. Short-term futures still focus on the dynamics of crude oil. Promoted by the strong futures, the PP spot was counterattacked, with an increase of 300-700 CNY/ton, which became the most crazy day after the holiday.

3. Comparison between crude oil and PP wire drawing

Crude oil, as indirect upstream crude oil of polypropylene, gradually coincides with the price trend of polypropylene. Although there is a contradictory trend from November to 2020 last year, the market trend is relatively close in the long-term. As crude oil is the source product of bulk commodities, its trend is directly related to the trend of downstream chemical products, but its trend is affected by the transmission of the upstream and downstream industrial chains of products, and has a certain degree of delay. However, after the Spring Festival in 2020, the overall market was weakened due to the epidemic. Only the futures was boosted by the rise in crude oil, and there was a strong pull up, which made the long-term weak downside polypropylene market find new opportunities for speculation. The goods rose strongly on April 7th. After that, the spot price of polypropylene rose rapidly by 300-700 CNY/ton, which was a fierce rise.

4、The outlook for the future

This round of PP surge is inseparable from the strong promotion of crude oil and futures. At the same time, the epidemic situation has affected the global emergency demand for medical materials, which has strongly driven the price of the high-melt fiber market. The polypropylene market can be said to be boosted by the high-melt fiber. A counter-attack rise. However, it is still inconclusive to reflect on the global epidemic situation. It is inconclusive whether it can quickly subside. The risk of global economic decline is increasing, especially the domestic foreign trade orders have significantly declined. In the next few months, the global economic recovery will take time, so this round of counterattacks on non-downstream demand Supporting the promotion of raw material pull-ups is purely the futures capital and the upstream manufacturers in the market are planning a joint pull-up. Comprehensive analysis of the market's short-term gains is difficult to sustain. Rapid pull-ups will ultimately depend on the combination of demand and return to rational prices.