Propylene/1,3-Butadiene/Isobutyl Alcohol...
2021 half year summary：Olefin and Alcohols
- Market Price
- Average Profit
- Average Profit
- Average Profit
-
![Propylene-price]()
In the first half of 2021, China's propylene market will be strong first and then weak. From January to June, the mainstream average price of Shandong market is about 7868 yuan/ton. After mid-to-late February, affected by the cold wave in the United States and the earthquake in Japan, the international crude oil drove the petrochemical market to rise. During the first half of the year, the petrochemical market continued to be supported by the maintenance of Chinese refining and chemical companies. The downstream derivatives market was still good, and the propylene market price remained high and fluctuated. Although the trading range has moved downward, the range is limited.MORE -
![profit]()
Naphtha Cracking to Propylene
From the perspective of naphtha cracking to propylene, the average profit for the first six months of 2021 is 1521.88 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 39.5% compared to 1091.28 yuan/ton in the same period last year. Although the international crude oil volatility rebounded in the first half of the year, the price of naphtha increased, but the market price of propylene remained relatively high and still maintained a good profitability level. However, as the price of naphtha continues to rise, there is some room for profit from cracking naphtha to propylene.MORE -
![Propylene-PDH]()
Propane Dehydrogenation
From the perspective of the propane dehydrogenation route, the average profit from January to June 2021 is 776.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.7% from 1044.49 yuan/ton in the same period last year. According to statistics, as of June 30, the price of CFR propane refrigerated goods in South China was US$643-644/ton, down 3.60% from the beginning of the year and up 106.09% year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, the international frozen cargo market showed a trend of falling first and then rising. In the first quarter, the market was dominated by shocks and declines. Since late April, prices have gradually increased, mainly driven by the rising international crude oil and tight supply. The profit margin of propane dehydrogenation is greatly affected by the cost of propane, and the profit has declined significantly after the second quarter.MORE -
![Propylene-MTO]()
MTO plant for propylene production
During the year, the profit of the MTO plant for propylene production fell into a loss again. The average profit for the first six months of 2021 was -503.5 yuan/ton, compared with -60.2 yuan/ton in the same period last year, a decrease of 736.4%. In the first half of 2021, the overall methanol market in China was relatively strong and fluctuated. After the second quarter, affected by various factors such as policy and supply, the price of raw coal has strengthened substantially, and the cost side has supported the increase in the price of coal chemical products. The profitability of methanol to olefins has been significantly inverted, and the profitability of propylene At one time it reached around -1600 yuan/ton. All MTP devices in the province have been shut down. In the third quarter, many MTO devices were running under reduced load or planned for maintenance.MORE
Looking back at the first half of 2021, the operating range of the propylene market was at a relatively high level.
The average market price range in Shandong was between 6,500-9,000 yuan/ton, and the average price from January to June was 7,868 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.96% from the same period in 2020. The extreme prices appeared in January and April respectively, with a high price of 8,600 yuan/ton and a low price of 6,900 yuan/ton.
-
Schedule
-
Jan-Mar
The market fluctuated widely in the first quarter.
-
Apr-Jun
In the second quarter, the market fluctuated and weakened.
-
Correlation coefficient
From the perspective of the correlation between propylene and upstream and downstream industries, compared with the same period last year, the correlation between propylene and polypropylene powder has increased significantly, reaching a very high degree of correlation.
-
Production Capacity
In terms of production capacity, as of the end of June 2021, the total production capacity of propylene in Mainland China reached 46.01 million tons/year. In the first half of 2020, a total of 9 new installations released capacity (see the table below for details), with a total of 3.086 million tons/year of new capacity.
-
Output
In terms of output, as of the end of June, the average operating rate of propylene plants in mainland China was 73.71%, and the total propylene output was 17.95 million tons, an increase of 12.78% compared with 15.92 million tons in the same period last year.
-
Jan-Mar
-
Time
Jan-July, 2021Address
China
Summary
Propylene
-
In summary, the cost of crude oil, propane and methanol prices will provide support for the propylene market, and the supply-demand relationship restricts the upper limit of the propylene market. The global economic recovery will increase the demand for petrochemical products from the bottom up. With the help of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” in the later period, it is expected that China’s propylene market will have bright market conditions. High position.ENTER
-
![Propylene-outlook]()
1,3-Butadiene
In the first half of 2021 , China’s butadiene market price showed a "W"-shaped trend.At the beginning of the year, the market price declined weakly.
1,3-Butadiene in the first half of 2021
In the first half of 2021 , China’s butadiene market prices fluctuated and rose mainly, especially after the Spring Festival holiday.
China’s butadiene market prices rebounded strongly. On the one hand, they were boosted by news of crude oil and other commodities, and on the other hand by some installations in March. The news of maintenance and repairs began one after another, and the profit of downstream synthetic rubber was acceptable, and the start-up load was relatively high. It supported a certain purchase demand for raw materials, which drove manufacturers to continue to increase prices, and holders' offers mainly followed up sharply.
Specific Analysis of 1,3-Butadiene
-
![butadiene-1]()
Supply Side
Read MoreRead More -
![butadiene-2]()
Demand Side
Read MoreRead More -
![butadiene-3]()
Import and Export
Read MoreRead More
- 1,3-Butadiene Summary
-
In summary, with the continuous commissioning of butadiene plants in China, the self-sufficiency rate of butadiene in China will increase significantly, and its dependence on imported sources may show a downward trend year by year. At present, the external market continues to be at a high level and still has a supporting role for the Chinese market. However, under the drag of terminal demand and natural rubber trends, the price gap between synthetic rubber and butadiene has narrowed, and the demand side performance in the later period may be weak. Looking at the market in the second half of the year, butadiene coexisted with some new downstream devices in production, and the supply-demand game continued. Therefore, China's supply of goods exports and downstream purchases are still the main guiding factors for market trends.MORE
Isobutyl Alcohol
-
Macroeconomics
-
Bulk and upstream
-
Butanol and downstream
-
![Macroeconomics]()
It is expected that consumption recovery and the growth momentum of the manufacturing industry under the support of fiscal and taxation policies will slow down in the second half of the year. It is expected that the situation of foreign epidemics will remain severe, but the mismatch of supply and demand and the oversupply of currency will lead to an upward trend on the demand side.MORE -
![Bulk and upstream]()
As the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to gradually ease, the "inflation" pressure of upstream bulk commodities in chemical products is expected to gradually ease in the second half of the year, and the value of commodities will be re-positioned.MORE -
![Butanol]()
The overall tight supply and demand situation is still maintained in the medium and long period. In the second half of the year, the overall operating rate of the industry is expected to remain at the level of 8-9, and will be constant, while the downstream will increase The overall consumption growth of the plasticizer industry is limited, especially after the epidemic has subsided.MORE
The octanol market (January-June 2021) trend
Isopropyl Alcohol
In the first half of 2021, the trend of China's isopropanol market was relatively volatile, with relatively frequent fluctuations in the first quarter, a period of relaxation at the beginning of the second quarter
China's isopropanol market in the first half of 2021 is relatively volatile, with the most frequent in the first quarter. In April, it entered a period of relative relaxation.
From the graph, we can see that the trend of China's isopropanol market in the first half of 2021 is relatively volatile, with the most frequent in the first quarter. In April, it entered a period of relative relaxation. After May, the market's center of gravity continued to fall. The new year begins in 2021. China’s isopropanol plant continued its downturn at the end of 2020. At the beginning of the month, due to the sluggish focus of the raw material acetone and the weak demand for isopropanol, the market’s focus was difficult to pick up. After mid-year, the Chinese isopropanol plant concentrated on delivering export orders. As a result, the on-site spot supply was reduced, and under the influence of some isopropanol factories, the focus of the market rose rapidly, but the good times did not last long.
Forecasts of Isopropyl Alcohol Market
-
In July, the isopropanol market demand continues to be in the off-season, and acetone continues to be in the low range, and the cost is difficult to provide greater support. It does not rule out that the isopropanol market will hit in July The bottom of the situation; the fundamentals on the market were relatively stable in August, and the overall volatility of the isopropanol market may be relatively flat; with the arrival of the peak demand season in September and October, the demand side will appear positive support, and the isopropanol market may appear at this time Upside opportunity; In November and December, market demand will return to light again. At this time, the factors that have a greater impact on the isopropanol market will be the cost side, with the focus on the market trend of acetone. Generally speaking, the forecast price range of the isopropanol market in the second half of the year is between 6000-9000 yuan/ton.ENTER
-
![forecast]()
Methanol
Internationally, after receiving the second counterattack against the epidemic and the subsequent ravages of mutant strains, the demand side recovered less than expected.
The overall situation of foreign supply remains loose, and foreign installations are more focused on the Chinese market. The overall import volume of methanol in the first half of the year decreased slightly compared with last year, and the overall fluctuation was not significant. According to statistics, China's total methanol imports from January to June 2021 decreased by a narrow margin compared with last year, at around 5.8549 million tons, which was a decrease of around 123,000 tons compared with the same period last year. In the second half of the year, the US YCI methanol plant No. 1 was put into operation in July, and the overall impact of the mutated virus epidemic abroad is still relatively large, and there are still uncertainties in the start of the work. It is estimated that the amount of methanol imported into China from July will be basically the same as that in the first half of the year, and the total annual import volume may remain at around 12 million tons.
First Half of 2021
China's Methanol Export Analysis and Forecast
-
According to monitoring, China’s methanol exports from January to June 2021 totaled 235,100 tons, while imports in the same period last year were only around 47,800 tons, a substantial increase year-on-year, with an average monthly average of 39,200 tons, an increase of 392.25% year-on-year. It is reported that the overall export volume in the first half of the year is higher than the same period in the first half of 2014 (the total export volume of methanol in the first half of 2014 reached 492,000 tons, the highest year since statistics), mainly due to the partial maintenance of Southeast Asian installations from March to April, There is a certain gap in supply, and the price gap between CFR China and other regional markets such as Southeast Asia is still very large. Re-export operations from China to other parts of Asia are concentrated, and bonded re-exports are the main ones. As the current international new crown epidemic is affected by many aspects such as the second counterattack of the epidemic, there are still some macroscopic variables, and the overall supply and demand status of foreign countries is unlikely to change significantly. It is expected that the export situation may remain relatively high in the second half of the year.ENTER
-
![Methanol-export]()
