Trend outlook of supply and demand pattern of acrylic acid industry in China

1 Analysis and forecast of supply and demand balance of acrylic acid market in China

The acrylic market volume shift is predicted by the characteristics of acrylic phase supply and demand shifts and the influence of medium and long-term product expansion factors, combined with acrylic market data and industry characteristics from previous years.The details are as follows: 2023-2027E due to the expansion of existing acrylic industry leaders such as Huayi, Yangzi BASF and Wanhua Chemical, resulting in an increase in the commercial volume of acrylic acid supply from 2018-2022 to an annual average or level of 380-440,000 tons.In terms of the overall industrial chain, extending from upstream raw materials to industrial end products not only reduces production costs and improves product competitiveness, but also effectively avoids risks and the industrial chain may be further optimized.It is expected that in 2025-2026, with the end of the adjustment period for the acrylic industry, the industry and the stability of the manufacturers will start to work and the industry will develop or maintain a positive trend.Acrylic industry in the years 2023-2025 will usher in new opportunities and challenges.

2 Forecast of Supply Trends in the Acrylic Acid Industry 2023-2027.

The incentive to roll out current capacity comes, in part, from the considerable benefits to the acrylic industry over the past few years; On the other hand, the mature production technology and the complete industrial structure of acrylic make it a popular product in downstream propylene equipment. However, acrylic capacity growth has been significantly larger than demand growth since 2022 and the industry's supply slack is expected to improve or continue to slow down capacity delivery in 2023-2027, while capacity utilization will gradually decrease.

In addition to existing acrylic production proposal plans, initial plant capacity news is also common in the years 2323-2027.Data from Lonmin showed in May that the industry's average total capacity for the years 2023-2027 exceeded 4.2 million tons, and annual production could be close to 2.8 million tons, both 800,000 tons and 630,000 tons above the annual average for the years 2018-2022.From the expansion of plants and regions, the acrylic industry expansion is concentrated in the major consuming regions of the East and South China markets.The current plant is the main supplier of PDH for propylene at this stage.It has invested in existing plants to improve its own industrial chain and achieve consolidation.

Acrylic capacity will continue to expand during the 2023-2027 period, including capacity expansions at Huayi Chemical, Satellite Chemical and Wanhua Chemical, but also involving existing propylene plants such as Tianjin Bohua Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical and Gulei Petrochemical.According to the statistics, China's acrylic capacity reached 3.9 million tons in 2023, and by 2027 it will exceed 4.4 million tons to 4.75 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 3.49 percent.The average annual acrylic capacity for the years 2023-2027 will increase by approximately 1 million tons to 4.203 million tons compared to the 2018-2022 period.In terms of global acrylic capacity, China's proportion is also likely to be an essential component.

In 2023, China's acrylic capacity will be almost 4 million tons, with the Guangxi Huayi acrylic acid plant coming into production with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons, bringing the domestic acrylic capacity to a different stage.It is estimated that its output could continue to grow to 2.54 million tons by 2022, almost 100,000 tons higher than in 2022 but still 300,000 tons below the annual average for 2023-2027.Its annual capacity utilization for May 2023 remains near 65 percent.It is also two percentage points below the 2023-2027 average.

The 2023 - 2027 E acrylic output was mostly or maintained an improvement, but after the expansion of existing acrylic plants, the 2023 - 2027 particularly acrylic industry or ushered in a period of industry consolidation, during which acrylic output grew at an average annual compound rate of 3.84%.Average annual production is expected to be 2,808,000 tons, 254,000 tons above the 2018-2022 average and 260,700 tons above the 2023 average.In terms of capacity utilization, E May's annual average of 67 percent for 2023-2027 is 1.8 percentage points higher than the annual average for 2018-2022 and 2 percentage points higher than the annual average for 2023.

In terms of regional supply, the expansion of acrylic products is concentrated in East and South China.By 2027, East China will account for 82.22 percent of production capacity and Northeast China for 1.87 percent.With the ongoing production of Guangxi Huayi, BASF and Wanhua Chemical plants, and the addition of new plants from Hengli and JuEnergy, the supply of acrylic acid in South China has increased significantly, and its share has increased from less than 10% at the beginning of the period to 14% in 2027.From 2023 to 2027, the annual average will be 2.82 percent, 80.80 percent, 1.93 percent and 14.45 percent for Northeast, East, Northwest and South China, respectively.These values are shifted by an average of 0.23 percent and -8.26 percent, respectively, compared to the 2018-2022 means -0.46% and 8.49%.

3 Consumption Trend Forecast of acrylic acid industry in China (2023-2027)

SAP is a new class of functional polymer materials. Hygiene products continue to be a driving force in the SAP market.In addition, domestic SAP consumption continues to expand with the relaxation of domestic family planning policies and the aging of the population, and some say that the future of fine acids, especially the SAP industry, may still be the most potential product in development.In addition, the demand for water reduction agents, light curing, water treatment and other downstream industries is gradually increasing, supported by environmental protection and other policies.

Special acrylic esters are the main raw material for radiocurable products. In contrast to conventional polymerization methods, this method does not use a chemical initiator, polymerizes at room temperature, and saves on the initiator and energy. At the same time, active diluents rather than solvents are used to radially cure the product to regulate the viscosity, so there is no VOC emission and no pollution to the environment.

Moreover, overall, 2023-2027 period, it is expected that acrylic acid will still be the largest downstream, its proportion or maintain 55% range, fine acrylic acid use, especially in the field of SAP has a excellent development, its proportion or maintain 27%-30%, water reducing agent from infrastructure, real estate and demand side impact, its proportion or maintain 8.00%-14%. From a macro perspective, acrylic prices in 2023-2027 are higher or more difficult to sustain. The concrete analysis is that the rise of commodities in 2021 is closely related to global public health events. In 2022, this condition was not supported. First, commodity prices are strong. While this is excellent for upstream companies, it increases production costs for some downstream manufacturing companies. Second, constraints on the supply side continue to ease. Thirdly, to ensure the effective recovery and kick-start of domestic demand, the government has introduced timely macro policies to support it.

Considering the holiday in 2023 and the development characteristics of the acrylic industry in China, together with the apparent monthly consumption of acrylic in 2018-2022, it is expected that the overall consumption of acrylic in 2023 will show a steady increase.Average monthly consumption in 2023 is expected to be 202,100 tons, 14,300 tons higher than the average monthly consumption in 2022 of 196,400 tons.From the historical data, "gold three silver four and gold nine silver ten" consumption season still plays a more obvious role in the acrylic industry trend.

From 2023 to 2027, the average annual consumption is expected to be 2,655,100 tons.After an intensive expansion of market supply in 2025, its apparent consumption in that year is likely to reach a relatively elevated level, with an estimated 2.756 million tons.The figure is 235,100 tons higher than the 2023 consumption and 51,700 tons higher than the 2018-2022 average annual consumption.Although the acrylic acid market is expected to temporarily continue the current pattern of development in 2027, its apparent consumption may decrease, but from the annual average value of 2018 to 2027, the domestic acrylic acid consumption is still under the expansion of downstream products and demand growth and performance is better.

Acrylic industry because of the wider demand and profits continue to maintain state, the industry is in continuous expansion, especially to 2025, the total capacity of domestic acrylic acid or less than 3.3 million tons in 2016, considerably expanded to approximately 4.3 million tons, such as the demand end to continue the current status quo, no new demand bright spots appear, Acrylic acid in capacity expansion period, the industry is also facing industrial restructuring. With the continued influence of the state on real estate policy, or the impact of acrylics including price and profit performance. it is estimated that in 2023-2027, the average proportion of acrylic demand from crates will be 58.6 percent, the average proportion of fine acrylic demand will be 28.6 percent, and the average proportion of water reduction agent demand will be 7.9 percent.

4 China acrylic acid import and export trends for 2023-2027

The benefits from the expansion of the acrylic industry in China have continued, and it is clear that the total volume of imported acrylics has remained low.Subject to increased domestic supply and demand in 2023 to continue the effects of light stability, acrylic acid imports are expected to remain at a low level of 0.23 million tons per month in 2023, which is flat in value compared to 2022 and 21.17 percent lower than 2021. By quarter, the import volume of the first and third quarters may be similar to that of 2021-2022, maintaining a relatively high level, with a monthly average of 0.24 million tons, while the overall import volume of the first half of the year may be slightly higher than that of the second half of the year, mainly due to routine maintenance of some plant equipment and market.

Fields have a relative preference for future trends in the support of the judgment.

2023-2027 China's acrylic acid imports or overall, absolute numbers are down due to the continued expansion of domestic plants, and China's dependence on foreign countries for acrylic acid has decreased year on year.Imports are estimated to be less than 30,000 tons in 2027, at an annual compound rate of -7.22 per cent.From 2023 to 2027, the average annual imports of acrylic acid will be 23,800 tons, 11.85 percent less than in 2022 and 17,500 tons less than in 2018 to 2022. Annual imports averaged 41,000 tons, a month-on-month decline of -41.95 percent.

2023-2027 acrylic acid export volume or gradual increase, subject to the weak economic environment at home and abroad, the continued fluctuation of the renminbi exchange rate and the continued adjustment of port fees. Longzhong is expected to be exposed to the acrylic acid export market or to weakening demand in 2023. Annual exports are expected to be just 147,000 tons, slightly lower than the 152,000 tons in 2022. Its average monthly exports in 2023 are expected to be just 12,300 tons, also 0.1 tons less than in 2022. The long-term view of the whole year, compared with the fluctuation range of the import market, is larger than the monthly export volume of acrylic to maintain a stable situation.

The average annual acrylic export volume for 2023-2027 is 189,400 tons, which is 72.18 percent higher than the 2018-2022 volume, and the compound annual growth rate is likely to be 5.58 percent.The average value of overall exports is expected to be higher in 2026-2027 than in 2023-2025 due to the aging of overseas installations and the recovery of the global economy, as well as the concentration analysis of investment and construction in the domestic acrylic industry.