October 20th, news
According to the commodity market analysis system: After the National Day holiday, supported by bullish factors, the adipic acid market in China continued to operate at high levels. On October 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 10,100 CNY/ton, and on October 20th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 10,133 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.33%.
Key factors influencing the adipic acid market:
Supply Side: Resumption of Operations, No Concentrated Maintenance, Supply Pressure Returns
Industry operation: Stable at 70%-75% in the first half of the month, rising to over 73% in the middle to late period; Hualu Hengsheng's maintenance ended at the end of September, and it will operate at full capacity in October; Huafon, Shenma, Hengli Dalian, and Tangshan Zhonghao's main facilities are all running stably, with no major maintenance plans for early October, leading to a more relaxed supply compared to mid-to-late September.
Incremental expectations suppress sentiment: The 450,000-ton integrated adipic acid project of Zhejiang Petrochemical is in the final stages of installation, and the expectation of a trial run within the year continues to hang over the market. Long-term incremental bearish factors continue to suppress bullish sentiment, making funds hesitant to push prices higher.
Overseas: The force majeure at U.S.-based Ascend has been fully lifted, and North American supply has resumed, removing the external price support that had previously stemmed from overseas shortages. Meanwhile, anti-dumping barriers in Europe remain in place, constraining the export window; Chinese supplies are being redirected to Turkey, India, and Southeast Asia, resulting in limited export‑driven demand. Consequently, exports from January to August were relatively weak year over year.
Demand Side: Strong Divergence—PA66 Provides Support, While Traditional Polyurethanes Weigh on Performance
PA66 (the largest demand segment, accounting for roughly 45%): Major integrated producers maintain stable operations and enjoy decent order volumes, continuing to secure supplies on a rigid basis; it is currently the only segment supporting adipic acid demand. However, PA66 itself is also expanding capacity, putting pressure on margins, and remains reluctant to accept higher adipic acid prices, with no proactive intention to increase procurement.
Polyurethane downstream (shoe sole raw materials, PU slurry, general TPU, about 35%): This has been a drag on the current market trend. Orders for footwear and furniture have been flat, and small to medium-sized PU factories in China are operating at low capacity. Due to high prices, they have proactively reduced purchases, and some small enterprises are running at low loads, making it difficult to pass on the price increases.
PBAT biodegradable: Demand is fluctuating and orders are sporadic, with only intermittent replenishment of essential needs, and there is no continuous increase in demand in China.
Adipic acid market analysts believe: supply-side pressures remain, terminal demand is average, and the market acceptance of high-priced adipic acid is also average. In the future, the adipic acid market may mainly show a weak downward trend.
