An Increase of More Than 30%! The Chemical Super Cycle May Last for Ten Years!

In 2022, coal will rebound and rise,

Natural gas continues to soar,

No, crude oil closely related to chemical industry has also started a new round of price hikes.

Strong start! Goldman Sachs: "Extremely Bullish"! Super cycle or last ten years!

Recently, international oil prices have frequently strengthened! So far this week, Brent crude oil has risen by 5.54%, and the price has successfully reached the $82/barrel mark.

Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on the 5th showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 417.9 million barrels last week, a decrease of 2.1 million barrels from the previous month.

The current domestic oil price cycle statistics have risen for 3 consecutive days, and the increase has approached the 200 yuan mark. The current rate of change in crude oil is 4.23%, an increase of 50 CNY/ton from the previous working day. On the third working day, it is predicted that the oil price will increase by 195 CNY/ton.

On the news side, (1) Libyan crude oil production dropped sharply, (2) civil unrest broke out in Kazakhstan, (3) OPEC production growth was lower than expected, (4) Russian crude oil production did not increase and many other factors may be driving oil prices to continue to strengthen major factor.

Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said on Thursday that the bank is "extremely bullish" on commodities and sees a possible 10-year supercycle that could be seen this year Oil hit $95 a barrel.

The riots in Kazakhstan have raised concerns about rising natural gas prices!

On January 4, Kazakhstan doubled the price of natural gas from 60 tenge per liter to 120 tenge (equivalent to RMB 1.76), which aroused strong dissatisfaction among the people. Serious riots broke out, and demonstrations were held in more than a dozen cities. rallies and violent clashes with police;

The "riot" in Kazakhstan has once again triggered natural gas tensions. In the past two years, the shortage of natural gas has affected people's life and industrial production.

Gas shortages in Europe continued to worsen, increasing by more than 30% and 800% higher than in previous years. One of Russia's main pipelines for delivering natural gas to Europe, the "Yamal-Europe Pipeline", has been carrying gas in reverse for two consecutive weeks. In recent years, the amount of domestically imported LNG (liquefied natural gas) has been steadily increasing, and it has become the world's second largest buyer after Japan. Affected by the skyrocketing natural gas prices in Europe, China's comprehensive LNG import from December 27 to January 2 The CIF index was 243.26 (CIF, excluding taxes and processing fees), a year-on-year increase of 190.95%. Under the influence of both spot and long-term contracts, the CIF price index of LNG comprehensive import has risen recently.

Coal: 40% of global thermal coal supply goes to zero overnight!

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said a few days ago that from January 1 to January 31 this year, Indonesia has banned coal exports, including coal carriers that are being loaded and have not yet been loaded, and all coal will be given priority to domestic power plants.

This move means that 40% of the world's coal seaborne supply will go to zero overnight! At present, many countries around the world are actively dealing with the problem of power shortage, which may cause coal prices to soar again.

Red start! In 2022, the price of a large number of chemical products will increase!

In terms of domestic spot products, the overall chemical products will turn red in 2022. Among the 64 chemical products monitored this week, a total of 44 kinds of products have increased in price, accounting for 68.75%.

Among them, n-butanol was increased by 1,200 CNY/ton, phenol by 1,350 CNY/ton, bisphenol A by 1,900 CNY/ton, DBP by 1,000 CNY/ton, butyl acrylate by 1,200 CNY/ton, epichlorohydrin by 1,600 CNY/ton, and TDI by 1,350 CNY/ton. ton, epoxy resin 1700 CNY/ton.