The show-stealing, highly controversial racetrack leader is far from being worth much

"Value Firm" previously tracked several old vaccine companies in the first tier, such as Zhifei Bio, Kangtai Bio and Watson Bio. However, in addition to these three companies, the vaccine industry has also promoted two new "pharma" in the past two years. Similarly, both companies have quickly improved the development pipeline and the construction of marketing teams by means of popular products.

01

Conchino

Of the two new pharma vaccine companies, Concino has arguably had the best luck, but is also the most controversial.

So far, all the rises and falls are related to the novel coronavirus, because in addition to the novel coronavirus products, the company has only a few varieties listed and interesting (after all, it has only been established for more than 10 years). At present, there are only bivalent and quadrivalent liquid mind combined seedlings, and the bivalent liquid mind can be basically ignored. This product was approved at the end of last December and is currently the first in China. There will not be corresponding products on the market in the next 2-3 years. The company has obvious first-mover advantage, and then it depends on whether the company can tap the potential of this product.

In the third quarter of 2022, the company basically did not sell COVID-19 vaccine, and even made a loss of 520 million yuan of COVID-19 vaccine assets, just like Kangtai. Therefore, the revenue of 77 million yuan in the third quarter can basically be equated with quadrillion.

Quadrillion was first approved in June 2022 and achieved nearly 100 million yuan in revenue in the first quarter, which is not bad for a company with almost no previous commercial experience. At the beginning, Concino originally wanted Pfizer's team to help him sell four prices, and then he prepared to set up a marketing team without Pfizer until the new coronavirus made money. By the third quarter reporting period, this product has completed the admission of 24 provinces and cities, nearly 800 districts and counties and cities without counties, and is expected to complete the coverage of key regions in the first quarter of 2023.

After the quadrivalent epidemic, the company's regular products will run out of stock for some time, not counting the COVID-19 vaccine. The fastest to market in the pipeline is 13-price pneumonia, which is currently in phase 3 clinical treatment. This product has been introduced in detail in the previous articles of Kangtai and Watson, and it is also a popular product with huge market potential. Kangxino is expected to become the third domestic manufacturer listed in China, and there is hope for a share of the market.

There are less things in phase III clinical, but the pipeline of phase I clinical and preclinical is quite rich. Superposition company has established five core technology platforms of viral vector, synthetic vaccine, protein structure and technology, VLP assembly, mRNA technology, preparation and drug delivery technology, which are interesting in the long term, but there are ups and downs in the short and medium term. However, due to the new coronavirus, the company has made a lot of money. It is not ruled out that the company will rely on the capacity to introduce pipelines in the future.

However, the recent market interest in Consino is obviously not conventional vaccines, and its market value fluctuates more along with COVID-19. The market is very concerned about its inhaled COVID-19 vaccine, especially the fourth booster injection recently came out. The imagination space of COVID-19 vaccine is suddenly opened up, with three or four injections, will there be 5678 in the future?? After all, we have to live with COVID-19.

Regardless of how much money is made from COVID-19, the success of products on the market is enough to show how useful the technology platform is. As for the future prospect of inhaled vaccines/preparations, the director is very optimistic about it. After all, most of the people who receive vaccines in China are children, who have a strong rejection of intramuscular injections, and even some children try their best to get vaccinated without their parents giving up at the end. It is undoubtedly very friendly for children to get vaccinated with a simple inhalation.

For this sniff of the students, is absolutely standing talking not waist pain, think about it, children if so easy to deal with, really like adults, the injection, the medicine to take medicine, these pharmaceutical factories will not dig their brains to the children's medicine becomes more and more "delicious". Far from it, in June this year, the CDE issued guidelines to improve the taste of medicines for children. Mouth to eat even so, this kind of thing can be imagined.

02

Wantai biology

Among the five first-tier vaccine companies, Wantai is only the second one that has little to do with COVID-19 vaccine (it only has something to do with COVID-19 testing. Although its COVID-19 vaccine has been approved recently, it is not known whether it will get a share of the cake even though the market is too big), and its performance is basically related to its usual business.

In the previous articles of Zhifei and Watson, we have said that the HPV volume of Zhifei and Watson is very fast this year, but Wantai is even faster than them. According to the data of the People's Procuratorate of China, in the first three quarters of this year, the company issued 229 batches of two-price HPV vaccine, which is +118% year-on-year. According to this data, the annual sales volume of the company is estimated to exceed 20 million, that is, the annual sales scale of more than 7 billion.

Last year's big sales of the novel coronavirus vaccine (with a total revenue of 4.2 billion yuan last year) were less than the annual revenue of the two-price HPV of Wantai, which is really terrible. The boss is worthy of being the richest man by selling water, and the marketing gene of the enterprise can only be said to be monstrous.

Recently, the biggest negative Zhifei biological, CDE change multi-valent HPV clinical endpoint, basically can be said to be tailormade for the good, have such a policy in, Wan Tai's 9 price HPV listing in advance is basically a sure thing, is expected to fast next year, slow after the year.

2 HPV rapid volume up to its 9 HPV listing rod basically no problem, but, in these two types of HPV, Wan Tai's research and development pipeline is a little thin. At present, there are only five clinical products of Wantai, including nine-valent HPV. The nasal spray novel coronavirus vaccine Consinol has been launched. The director advised everyone not to be too YY, especially Wantai.

However, behind the chickenpox, 20 price pneumonia are heavy products, although there is a gap with HPV (20 price pneumonia is not necessarily), but we also not difficult to see, Wan Tai's idea is only to do big explosive products.

In general, Wantai short - term performance sustainability is basically not need to worry about. It's kind of ironic, really, that he has one of the thinnest pipelines, but one of the most consistent in the short to medium term.

03

Finally

So far, we have tracked the recent report cards of the five Tier 1 vaccine companies, and we can see some problems and opportunities.

First of all, the development of Chinese vaccine industry is still short, and the corresponding enterprises are not mature. Even the enterprises at the head of the industry have their own problems.

For example, Zhifei, although the pipeline is the richest, marketing strength is also the strongest, but also the most money, but will face a period of time, after the launch of Wantai, Watson and other domestic 9 price HPV, its agent product share will decline rapidly (this can refer to Pfizer 13 price pneumonia in domestic approval after the rapid decline in sales), follow-up products are difficult to quickly connect.

For example, although the pipeline of Kangtai is also very rich, the marketing team is always on the point of thinking that the volume of 13 prices is not as fast as imagined, and the exclusive variety of quadruple seedling has not fully explored its value. Although there is no need to worry too much about the follow-up performance due to the continuous launch of large varieties, it is recently subject to the impairment of the novel coronavirus products, and it is disliked by the asset market.

Another example is Watson, which almost sold its subsidiary company of HPV research and development before due to lack of money, but was finally protected due to the strong opposition of many shareholders. Now the research and development pipeline has been put up, and there are also blockbuster products 2-price HPV and 13-price pneumonia on the market successively to make money for the company, but the pipeline after 9-price HPV is a little thin. After the need to earn money to introduce some varieties to replenish.

The newly promoted first echelon of Kangxino, Wan Tai, are promoted by explosive products, the echelon of pipeline has not been built up, if Watson is just a little thin, he is not generally thin, fortunately, these two have recently earned a lot of money, money in hand, theoretically speaking is not afraid of lack of pipeline, after all, can play the ability of money, This next door Xinlitai, East China has already taught us lessons.

That's true of the first tier of companies, and it's even more true if you look at the second tier of vaccine companies. Many vaccine companies are "big single product companies", such as Kanghua, which relies on diploid vaccine, Chengda, which relies on original vaccine, and Hualan, which relies on quadrivalent influenza. And many of them still face the current situation of declining sales of individual products, which is because the industry is still in the early stage of development.

On the one hand, early days mean such and such limitations, but on the other hand, they correspond to such and such opportunities. Let's say that the most popular HPV in China now, don't look at Wantai + Zhifei + Watson, a year sold tens of millions of doses of vaccine out, but in the face of domestic 300 million, 400 million people of the right age to vaccinate, in the overall background of nearly 1 billion doses of vaccine, the penetration rate can only be said to be too low. The highest degree of domestic consensus HPV is so, what other chickenpox, pneumonia, adult vaccine, the elderly vaccine is even more so.

In the first three quarters of this year, all the conventional vaccines of these five companies have been in high volume, benefiting from the "vaccine popularization" education brought by COVID-19. This is a good era for vaccines, which has just begun.