Phosphate Market in August Stabilizes After Narrow Fluctuations in China

August 29 update

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, on August 29, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6,700 CNY/ton. On August 1, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6,690 CNY/ton. This month, the price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China increased by 0.15%.

II. Market Analysis

This month, the Chinese phosphate market trend first rose and then fell. In the early part of the month, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus increased, leading to a rise in cost support, and phosphate prices went up. By mid-month, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate market was subdued, with reduced purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers, causing phosphate prices to fall. In the latter part of the month, supply and demand in the phosphate market stabilized, with downstream buyers cautiously making purchases, and the phosphate market trended towards stable consolidation.

Market Conditions

As of August 29, the ex-factory quotation for 85% thermal process phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6,400-6,850 CNY/ton, in Sichuan region it is around 6,400-6,800 CNY/ton, and in Yunnan region it is around 6,500 CNY/ton. The market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is around 6,500-7,300 CNY/ton.

Market Conditions

Raw material yellow phosphorus market trend. This month, the yellow phosphorus market trend has been fluctuating and rising. In the early part of this month, due to supply-side support, manufacturers mainly maintained their prices, leading to an increase in the market price of yellow phosphorus. By mid-month, the market price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose. With no inventory pressure, manufacturers mainly maintained their prices. Downstream buyers, driven by essential needs, mostly tried to negotiate lower prices for purchases. In the latter part of the month, the yellow phosphorus market trend was mainly stagnant and consolidating.

III. Market Forecast

Phosphate analysts believe that the phosphate market in China has been operating steadily recently. The raw material, yellow phosphorus, is in a stalemate and consolidation phase, with no significant fluctuations in the cost end. The phosphate market transactions are stable, with the market mainly adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the phosphate market in China will consolidate in the short term.