Further observation is needed for the recovery of downstream vitamin inventories

Recently, there are opinions that due to the suspension of production and maintenance by leading manufacturers and the downstream replenishment cycle, vitamins may usher in a new round of rise. However, the reporter learned from the upstream and downstream industries that the prices of various vitamins and the main downstream products of vitamin premixes for pigs have remained stable. At present, only the price of monomer VE for pigs fluctuates slightly. Does it mean that downstream inventory de-removal demand has rebounded? To be further observed.

Huitong data believes that the suspension of production and maintenance by leading manufacturers means that the supply is tightened, and downstream companies are actively replenishing their inventory. The VA, VE and D3 market transactions have increased. Vitamins have bottomed out after three consecutive months of decline. Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Wang Lin also holds a similar view. He added to reporters that the 3.6% year-on-year increase in the stock of reproductive sows in June is an important turning point in demand.

On the 14th, the reporter called the major vitamin manufacturers Xinhecheng and Zhejiang Pharmaceutical. Both parties stated that the suspension of production from July to August every year is a routine operation, and the company has sufficient stocks and does not affect product supply. The relevant person in charge of Xinhecheng said: “This kind of overhaul is generally scheduled in the third quarter because the weather is relatively hot and it is relatively off-season.” The reporter looked through the vitamin prices around 2018-2019 Q3, and found no increase due to routine maintenance. price. According to data from Huitong, the Xinhecheng VA production line has been overhauled since July and ended at the end of August. Zhejiang Pharmaceuticals will stop production for overhaul from August 1 to September 15.

On the feed side of the main downstream products of vitamins, on the 14th, the relevant person in charge of Tongwei said that the company has high expectations for the prosperity of aquatic feed, but the demand for pig feed is relatively weak, and it is expected that it will not be significantly boosted in the second half of the year. On the same day, a reporter from the Cailian News Agency contacted a number of pig feed brokers in the name of purchasing and learned that the price of vitamin premixes for pigs has been generally stable recently, and only the price of monomer VE has seen slight fluctuations recently. This information is basically consistent with the latest VE price increase in the upstream. According to the data from China Feed Industry Information Network, in the second week of August, the prices of VA, VE and D3 all increased slightly compared with the previous week, which were respectively 390-410 yuan/kg and 63- 67 yuan/kg and 175-195 yuan/kg, of which VE increased the most, reaching 3%-4%.

Regarding whether the demand for vitamins is picking up, one of the important indicators in the industry is the stock of pigs. It is reported that pig feed has the greatest impact in the downstream segmented demand for vitamins, but due to lack of relevant data, the stock of live pigs is generally used as a reference indicator. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the pig stock has continued to rise this year. At the end of the second quarter, the national live pig population was 339.96 million, a month-on-month increase of 5.8%, but a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. Some industry analysts said that the southern flood situation has some adverse effects on pig production and transportation, and it is expected that production capacity will be fully released after October.