August 31 news
As of August 30, 2026, the spot average price of butadiene in China was 12,466.67 CNY/ton. The current average difference indicator shows that the price is in a weak rebound (bearish) fluctuation range. The prices over 60-day and 3-month periods are at high levels, with limited short-term upside potential. Downstream buyers mostly maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the near future.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Mean Difference Indicator | Today (2026.8.30) Value | Yesterday (2026.8.29) Value | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 146.67 | 140.00 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 90.00 | 140.00 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 532.00 | 592.34 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (+, -, -), which is a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is oscillating. Reason: The change in direction of the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent, and does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. Therefore, it is judged to be an oscillating trend.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day cycle: Currently at Level 5 (high), with limited short-term upside potential;
3-month cycle: Currently in the 5th stage (high level); prices have reached a relatively high range for this phase.
1 year cycle: It is in the 3rd tier (median), and in the long term, it has a reasonable space for two-way fluctuations.
V. Price Trend Chart for the Past Year
VI. Market Supply and Demand Reference
China's quotation: On August 28, the factory price of butadiene in Sinopec's East China, North China, and Central China regions was set at 125,000 CNY/ton, while in South China, it was set at 124,000 CNY/ton. Recently, manufacturers have been actively shipping goods, and the auction floor prices of companies such as Dongming Petrochemical and Satellite Chemical have remained stable in the range of 120,000-125,000 CNY/ton.
Overseas market conditions: On August 25, Asian butadiene CFR China was quoted at USD 1,505–1,513 per ton, while European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at USD 1,095–1,103 per ton.
Supply and demand logic: Previously, tight spot supply supported the continuous upward trend in prices. Now that prices have risen to high levels, it has significantly suppressed downstream purchasing intentions. Most downstream entities are maintaining rigid demand procurement and adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Under the dual-sided game of supply and demand, it is expected that prices will remain in a high-level fluctuation pattern in the short term.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
