Foreign trade is expected to grow steadily in the fourth quarter

As a "barometer" of my country's foreign trade, the 128th Canton Fair will be held online from October 15th to 24th. According to industry insiders, based on PMI's leading indicators, as a series of stable foreign trade policies continue to take effect, coupled with the partial recovery of international market demand, manufacturing import and export data has further improved, foreign trade is expected to continue its steady growth in the fourth quarter.

Policy effect release

Thanks to a series of stable foreign trade policies, the import and export index rose above the threshold in September. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the new export order index and import index in September were 50.8% and 50.4%, which were 1.7 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, and rose above the prosperity and decline line for the first time this year.

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that with the continuous implementation of a series of foreign trade stabilization policies and the partial recovery of international market demand, the import and export data of the manufacturing industry has further improved.

Gao Feng, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said a few days ago that the PMI of major economies in the world has improved since the beginning of this year, and foreign trade has been supported throughout the year.

According to the latest data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI was 52.9% in September, which has remained above 50% for three consecutive months. The stable recovery of the global economy will promote the improvement of my country's foreign trade environment and drive the growth of foreign trade.

Exports expected to grow steadily

Gao Feng said that continuing to hold the Canton Fair online will help further give full play to the role of the Canton Fair as a platform for opening up to the outside world, promote the stable and healthy development of foreign trade under normalized epidemic prevention and control, and facilitate the smooth flow of the foreign trade industry chain and supply chain.

"The unimpeded foreign trade industry chain and supply chain will bring benefits to my country's exports in the fourth quarter and even a longer period of time." said Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, believes that under the combined effect of the gradual control of the overseas epidemic and the better recovery of the Chinese economy, the export performance in the third quarter was much better than expected, and the export will continue to grow steadily in the fourth quarter.

According to Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, my country’s export resilience in the future will mainly come from two aspects: First, the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled and manufacturing capacity has basically returned to normal, which means that my country’s export supply capacity is stronger than its competitors. The global market share is expanding; second, the inflection point of the global epidemic is difficult to find in the short term, and the high growth momentum of epidemic prevention materials exports will remain for some time.

Regarding imports, Wang Qing said that the domestic economy continues to be repaired, and investment and consumption growth is expected to pick up further, which will play an important role in supporting imports.

Measures to stabilize foreign trade need to be overweight

It is worth noting that the current global epidemic has not yet been fully and effectively controlled. The latest global trade in goods prosperity index released by the WTO hit a record low. Uncertainties and unstable factors have increased significantly. The situation facing my country's foreign trade development is still severe and complex.

In addition, the recent appreciation of the renminbi has put pressure on foreign trade companies. Bai Ming said that many foreign trade companies have reported that the recent appreciation of the renminbi has caused companies to express concerns about future orders. The next stage of foreign trade exports needs to be cautiously optimistic. He suggested that relevant departments should accelerate the promotion of the strategy of exporting to domestic sales, and support foreign trade enterprises to export to domestic sales through multiple channels. Encourage foreign trade enterprises to connect with e-commerce platforms and organize large commercial enterprises to carry out direct purchase of orders. At the same time, strengthen credit insurance and financial support, improve the level of facilitation of domestic sales, and provide financing services and support.

The Ministry of Commerce recently proposed ten measures for stabilizing foreign trade, including vigorously grasping the implementation of foreign trade policies to ensure that relevant policies benefit market players as soon as possible; fully supporting enterprises in grasping orders and successfully hosting the 128th Canton Fair; accelerating the cultivation of new formats and models of foreign trade; actively promoting expansion For the export of daily necessities, we will continue to do a good job in the export of epidemic prevention materials, strictly control the quality of exports, and standardize the export order; actively expand imports, carefully organize the third China International Import Expo, accelerate the construction of import trade and promote innovation demonstration zones; support the transfer of export products Domestic sales, etc.