German, French power prices surge as hot weather to return, renewables fade

London — Forecasts for returning high temperatures coupled with a decrease in renewables generation in north west Europe over the weekend and next week sent the German and French wholesale prompt power prices higher on Friday.

The German week-34 baseload power contract added more than Eur1 on the day to trade at Eur56.40/MWh on EEX platform, with offers rising above Eur57/MWh on Friday.
Sources also said the base Monday power price in Germany rose back up above Eur60/MWh for the first time since last Tuesday. Similarly, the French week-ahead base counterpart climbed to Eur58/MWh Friday morning, after closing at Eur56.75/MWh on Thursday.

The market is "very bullish" with "warmer [weather], low water levels in Germany and less renewables especially wind" driving spot prices up, a trader said. "In Kaub water levels should be below 60 centimeters next week," he added.

Low Rhine river levels have reduced coal barge transport thereby restricting coal supply to hard coal power plants operated by utilities RWE and EnBW. This has reduced hard coal output from the power plants, which could continue if river levels remain low, further boosting prices for power in Germany.

From the start of August to date, water levels at the key chokepoint of Kaub have ranged between 60-80 cm, sharply below seasonal norms, with WSV's four-day forecast showing no recovery and levels remaining below 80 cm until the end of the week.

On the weather front, both MeteoFrance and Germany's DWD forecasters predict a rise in temperatures in the upcoming week, with high temperatures expected to settle in France at least until next Wednesday.

The return of high temperatures once again triggered a reduction in nuclear power production in France's St Alban and Bugey reactors. French nuclear plant operator EDF said production availability at its 1.335-GW St Alban-2 reactor will drop to 260 MW early Saturday for one day. Also, only 180 MW at EDF's 910-MW Bugey-3 reactor will be available in the peak load hours of between 1 pm and 8:00 pm local time on Saturday, the operator said on its REMIT website.

Furthermore on the supply side, wind generation in Germany is expected to plunge to less than 3 GW on Sunday, from Saturday's peak estimates of 7.1 GW, spotrenewables data showed. It is expected to decline to around 3.4 GW on Tuesday after a brief uptick to 5 GW on Monday but slump to less than 2 GW by Wednesday. A similar wind supply forecast is seen for France, with wind falling below 1 GW on Sunday and by the middle of next week, spotrenewables estimates showed.