Market Analysis: factors that affect AIBN price

AIBN, also known as Azobisisobutyronitrile, is an organic compound and the most common oil-soluble azo polymerization initiator, used in the polymerization of various polymers. Therefore, it is very necessary for market participants to understand the factors affecting AIBN price. This article explores some of the factors that affect AIBN price to help readers anticipate price changes in advance.

Upstream and downstream product prices

AIBN is mainly used as a foaming agent and polymerization initiator for rubber, plastics, etc., and can also be used in organic synthesis. In the chemical industry, AIBN is used to produce vinyl chloride, vinyl acetate, acrylonitrile, polyurethane, PVC foaming agent, polyvinyl alcohol, styrene polyester, polyamide, dicofol, polyvinyl chloride resin, etc.The prices of these downstream products directly affect the price of raw material AIBN.

The upstream raw materials of AIBN include acetone, acetone cyanohydrin, chlorine, hydrocyanic acid, sodium cyanide, hydrazine hydrate, etc., which will also have a great impact on AIBN price.

Product capacity

The scale of production capacity is the ceiling of the supply of the entire industry chain, and it is also the maximum limit that output can reach over a long period of time. We should pay attention to the current production capacity data in the AIBN industry; the production capacity data of monthly or quarterly equipment maintenance or shutdown in the industry; the production capacity data that may be eliminated in the industry; the monthly or quarterly new production capacity data in the industry, etc.

Industry profit level

Industry profit level is the core factor driving the development of the entire industry. If the average profit level of the AIBN industry is high, all links in the industry chain will tend to expand production capacity and increase operating rates; conversely, If the average profit level in the industry declines, the newly launched production capacity will decrease, and the operating rate is likely to decrease.

International, national policies, geopolitics and other factors

International and national decisions are also an important factor affecting the supply and price of chemical commodities. Historically, the decision-making factors that affect supply and prices include internal policy factors and external policy factors. From the perspective of external policy factors, trade disputes between countries, such as AIBN anti-dumping investigations, will have a greater impact on AIBN and its related industries; from the perspective of internal policy factors, if some countries or industry organizations want to protect resources or obtain more economic benefits, measures to limit or increase production of AIBN and related products will also cause fluctuations in AIBN market supply and prices.

For example, from the perspective of environmental protection, some countries may require the elimination of backward production capacity in order to reduce carbon emissions caused by the production of AIBN, which will have a greater impact on the supply and price of the entire industry.

Social inventory

The inventory is equivalent to a "reservoir" that can adjust the supply. During the off-season of AIBN demand, inventory can be appropriately increased; during the peak season of AIBN demand, inventory can be reduced to meet downstream demand. Generally speaking, inventory includes the following categories: the inventory of manufacturers, the inventory of traders (including ports), and the inventory of downstream consumer companies.

To sum up, the price of AIBN is affected by upstream and downstream product prices, product capacity, industry profit level, international, national policies, geopolitics and other factors, social inventory, etc. Market participants can analyze and speculate on AIBN price changes through the above situations to make more favorable decisions.